Trading 1st-round picks may be new normal

Ten things about the Broncos and the NFL’S Annual Selection Meeting (“the draft”), which begins with Thursday night’s first round:

1. A record eight teams will enter Thursday night without a first-round pick (including the Broncos). The current record is seven teams in 2019-20. What the teams got for trading their first-round pick (quarterback unless noted): Broncos (Russell Wilson), Chicago (move up last year for Justin Fields), Cleveland (Deshaun Watson), Miami (move up for receiver Jaylen Waddle last year), Las Vegas (receiver Davante Adams), San Francisco (move up for Trey Lance last year) and the Rams (Matthew Stafford). The Broncos, 49ers, Browns, Rams and New Orleans have already traded their 2023 firstround picks.

2. Why are teams suddenly fine with the big swing? “The reason why we’re seeing it is we have so much more cap room and flexibility,” said former Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik, now an analyst for Sirius XM. “The cap is going up and clubs have more flexibility in who they want to part with. And players are feeling more empowered than ever before. They’re getting more aggressive in their stance. Especially some of these guys who are elite, they’re better than having a first-round pick.” To Dominik’s point, all of the aforementioned veteran players (Wilson, Stafford, Adams and Watson) engineered their exits.

3. Last year, the Broncos stayed at No. 9 and drafted cornerback Pat Surtain II, who is arguably their best defensive player. Carolina made Surtain-to-the-broncos happen when it selected cornerback Jaycee Horn eighth overall. I asked general manager George Paton what spot Surtain would go if he was in Thursday’s first round.

“He could be the first pick, definite top-five,” Paton said. “You compare him to the other corners, they’re all good, but my guess is he would be in the top five (picks) somewhere based on what teams need.”

4. In Paton’s NFL career, which began in 1997 with Chicago, this is the seventh time his team does not have a first-round pick. The Bears didn’t have one in ’97 (traded for quarterback Rick Mirer), Miami in 2002-03 (for running back Ricky Williams), Minnesota in ’08 (for defensive end Jared Allen), ’10 (traded down from No. 30 to 34) and ’17 (for quarterback Sam Bradford).

5. Dominik on Colorado State tight end/fort Morgan native Trey Mcbride: “My favorite tight end in this draft class and probably the top-rated tight end. He’s athletic, he can move around really well and I think he’ll be able to continue to do that and produce at the level he did (at CSU). He’s going to be a guy that a lot of clubs are hoping they can sneak into the second round. I think he would be a really good fit (for the Broncos).”

6. Currently, the Broncos’ first pick isn’t until

No. 64 to wrap up the second round, their latest starting point since 1995 when they didn’t draft until, gulp, No. 121. What happened to those earlier picks? First round — sent to Atlanta in a package that included receiver Mike Pritchard. Second round — sent to Minnesota two years before in trade that included guard Gary Zimmerman. Third round — sent to Philadelphia for cornerback Ben Smith. Fourth round — sent to Minnesota to move down 10 spots; the Broncos took running back Terrell Davis at No. 196, one of the picks from the Vikings.

7. Look for the undrafted free agent market to be competitive Saturday night. More players are available because of the bonus COVID-19 year afforded by the NCAA. “We did anticipate that,” assistant general manager Darren Mougey said. “After last year’s class being smaller and knowing that there was almost a double class this year, we had talks after the draft last year — our entire staff, (saying), ‘OK, how should we address this?’” Mougey said senior personnel executive Roman Phifer hit the road last fall to provide an “extra set of eyes” on prospects. “We wrote (up) a lot of players this fall,” Mougey said. “We had nine reports on one player. We feel good about our plan.”

8. NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah on the draft: “I don’t know that I can remember a year with more uncertainty. The great example is (defensive end George) Karlafitis from Purdue. There are teams that think he’s one of the top 15 players and there are teams that think he’s not worth a first- or second-round pick. That’s how all over the board teams are on some of these guys.

9. Evidently, Paton wasn’t confident in this year’s running back class to trust one as a backup to Javonte Williams or he wouldn’t have brought back Melvin Gordon on Tuesday. The Broncos took advantage of Williams’ rookie contract to re-sign Gordon (one year), but it should be with the clear message that Gordon is Williams’ backup. This running game needs to go through Williams.

10. Jeremiah on Wyoming linebacker Chad Muma (Lone Tree/legend): “He’s got incredible instincts. He is so quick to see things. He’s just always around the football. He trusts his eyes. There’s no hesitation in his game.

He’s got timing and bursts as a blitzer. Outstanding in coverage. I think he’s probably going in the 30s, 40s. I think he’s going to be a great player.”