Ukraine’s military burns through ammunition; future fights at risk
The Ukrainian military is firing thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to hold the eastern city of Bakhmut, a pace that American and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardize a planned springtime campaign that they hope will prove decisive.
The bombardment has been so intense that the Pentagon raised concerns with Kyiv recently after several days of nonstop artillery firing, two U. S. officials said, highlighting the tension between Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut at all costs and its hopes for retaking territory in the spring. One of those officials said the Americans warned Ukraine against wasting ammunition at a key time.
With so much riding on a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the United States and Britain are preparing to ship thousands of NATO and Soviet-type artillery rounds and rockets to help shore up supplies for a coming Ukrainian offensive.
But a senior American defense official described that as a “lastditch effort” because Ukraine’s allies do not have enough ammunition to keep up with Ukraine’s pace and their stocks are critically low. Western manufacturers are ramping up production, but it will take many months for new supplies to begin meeting demand.
This has put Kyiv in an increasingly perilous position: Its troops are likely to have one meaningful opportunity this year to go on the offensive, push back Russian forces and retake land that was occupied after the invasion began last year.
And they will probably have do it while contending with persistent ammunition shortages.
Adding to the uncertainty, Ukrainian casualties have been so severe that commanders will have to decide whether to send units to defend Bakhmut or use them in a spring offensive, several of the officials said. Many of the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Artillery has become the defining weapon of the war in Ukraine, including howitzers and mortars. Both sides have powerful anti-aircraft systems, so the fighting is being waged largely on the ground. As the year- old war continues, a major factor in who perseveres is which side has enough ammunition and troops.
More than 200,000 Russians are estimated to have been wounded or killed since the start of the war. The Ukrainian figure is more than 100,000. Russia can conscript forces from its population, which is about three times the size of Ukraine’s, but both sides are contending with ammunition shortages. Russia’s formations are firing more ammunition than Ukraine’s.
“We need shells for mortars,” a Ukrainian soldier fighting in Bakhmut said in recent days. He said his battalion had not been resupplied. A Ukrainian tank commander, whose T-80 tank has been used in the city’s defense, said he had barely any tank ammunition left.
Another commander in a brigade that has been instrumental in holding Bakhmut posted on Facebook on Tuesday that there was a “catastrophic shortage of shells.” He described an incident in which his unit disabled an advanced Russian T- 90 tank but was forbidden from firing artillery to finish it off because “it’s too expensive.”
The Pentagon estimated that Ukraine was firing several thousand artillery shells a day across the 600-mile front line, which includes Bakhmut, a city that is almost surrounded by Russian troops. Moscow’s forces control approximately half the city and are encroaching on the supply lines the Ukrainians need to defend the rest.
The United States hopes to produce 90,000 artillery shells per month, but that is likely to take two years. The European Union is pooling resources to manufacture and buy about 1 million shells. That, too, will take time. And a secret British task force is leading an effort to find and buy Soviet-style ammunition, which Ukraine primarily relies on, from around the world.