Denver is near top of West, and schedule is about to get easier
Yet again this week, the Nuggets won a road game with
Nikola Jokic absent for the second half. They are 3- 0 when that happens this season, once in a rest day and twice after he’s been ejected.
While coach Michael Malone joked that “I’m starting to think he’s overrated” after their win Wednesday in Chicago, the Nuggets’ record in those situations is more an endorsement of their handling of setbacks and hardships this season than a comment on Jokic’s value.
On Jan. 5, 2024, the Nuggets will wrap up their ninth back- toback in the first 37 games of the season — 48.6% of their games at that point will have been within 24 hours of another game. And in six of those nine back- to- backs, their second- day opponent will have had more rest than them.
Then in the last 45 games of the schedule, Denver will play only four back- to- backs.
Despite a couple of road slumps early in 2023- 24, the Nuggets have more than exceeded expectations under those circumstances: They are 5- 1 in the second leg of their back- to- backs, the next one being Dec. 23 in Charlotte. ( The Hornets will enter that game having not played the previous two days.)
The defending champions also played 15 of their first 25 games on the road, and 10 of those 15 without star point guard Jamal Murray. Eighteen of their 31 games before Christmas are road matchups. It’s one of the most travel- heavy schedules in the
NBA through the holidays.
Yet they were second place in the West at 17- 9 going into this weekend.
“We’re a resilient group,” guard Reggie Jackson said. “We’re a group that believes in each other. We’re gonna play hard. We’ve got many ways to play. Of course the best way is when the best player in basketball is playing. … But we have a bunch of skill on this team and a bunch of belief on this team.”
How does the rigor of that schedule compare to other contenders for the top seed in the conference? First place as of Friday was held by Minnesota ( 18
5), a team with more balance between home and away games so far ( 12 of the first 25 at home) and far more breathing room between games. The Timberwolves only play two back- to- backs through Jan. 5, the day Denver finishes its ninth. Then they have 11 back- to- backs the rest of
the way in a heavily back- loaded schedule.
They have done an exceptional job taking advantage of their lighter start to the season. Their legitimacy is about to be tested once the calendar changes.
Same goes for the up- and- coming Thunder ( 15- 8): two back- tobacks so far, four through Jan. 5, then 10 the rest of the way. Nineteen of their first 32 games are in Oklahoma City.
The Lakers and Suns are the two teams that were most commonly considered threats to Denver’s Western Conference throne when the season started. Los Angeles’s schedule is a bit more balanced with seven back- to- backs through Jan. 5. Phoenix, though, has five through that date followed by nine in the last 47 games. The Suns also play 22 of their first 36 games in Arizona, setting up a much less friendly second half of the season. They’re
currently treading water at 13- 11 during the easy part.
Not only do the timing and locations become less strenuous soon for the Nuggets; so do their opponents. As of Friday, the teams that make up Denver’s remaining 56 games had a .485 combined win percentage. That’s the fifth- easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league. The Suns’ remaining opponent win percentage was secondtoughest in the NBA at .521. The Thunder’s was 11th at .505. The Lakers’ was 14th at .501. The Timberwolves’ was 19th at .494.
Making it through Murray’s right hamstring injury has been the defining hurdle of the first quarter of 2023- 24, but the three road wins without Jokic in the second half were also games Murray missed.
“I think what I’m starting to feel is, our young guys are getting more comfortable and more confident,” Malone said.
With Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson both scoring career highs this week, Denver’s bench has indeed reached a season peak by averaging 51.3 points per game during a three- game win streak in response to the previous three- game skid.
To lose four out of five on a road trip is uncharacteristic of a defending NBA champion. To lose three consecutive games a week later is not ideal either.
But to survive the most grueling part of a schedule with one of the best records in the West is a more holistic understanding of Denver’s current vantage point.