WHO HAS THE EDGE?
Guards
D’angelo Russell was a defensive liability in the Western Conference Finals last season, and his offense seemed to suffer from it. The Nuggets, namely Bruce Brown, p layed him off the floor. A n 18- point- per- game scorer reached double figures in only one of the four games, piling extra responsibility on Austin Reaves’ shoulders. T his season, Reaves’ 3- point shooting dropped three percentage points, but Russell’s improved to 41.5%. He was the unheralded MVP of the Lakers’ play- in victory over New Orleans. If the Nuggets can close out strong to him and expose him again at the defensive end, they’ll tilt the series. The best news for Denver: Jamal Murray is a matchup problem for the Lakers, and it showed last year. The Nuggets won his minutes by 11.6 points per 100 possessions in the 2023 series, an even better net rating than Nikola Jokic’s minutes yielded. Neither Russell nor Reaves should h ave an a nswer defensively for Murray. Edge: Nuggets.
Wings
After Game 3 i n Los Angeles, L ebron James will have played an entire 82game season’s worth of first- round playoff games in his career. He is 62- 17 so far, and in the 16 first- round series he has been a part of, he has advanced 15 times. James’ defense has taken an understandable dive with age, but he’s still defying categorization ( Is he a wing? Or a big?) as the engine of a Los Angeles offense that ranked sixth in the NBA over the last 15 games of the regular season. At 39, he has produced the best jump- shooting campaign of his Hall of Fame career at 41% beyond the arc. Aaron Gordon, doubling as Denver’s backup center, will be James’ primary defender, but the Nuggets have other strong wing defenders they can throw at him, from Peyton Watson to Christian Braun. Los Angeles would likely rather get Michael Porter Jr. or Murray switched onto James as often as possible. Edge: Lakers.
Bigs
How many minutes at a time can the Lakers depend on Anthony Davis to guard Nikola Jokic straight up, before they decide they need to mix up coverages? On paper, the post matchup at the center of this series is as epic as it’s ever been: Davis is a deserving Defensive Player of the Year candidate on a n otherwise defensively flawed team. Jokic represents the synthesis of power and finesse on offense. But recent e vidence reveals this showdown to be more skewed than it should be. In Denver’s ongoing eight- game win streak against the Lakers, Jokic is a veraging 26.6 points ( 54.2% from the floor), 14.4 rebounds and 11.3 assists. In short: The Lakers aren’t taking away his scoring or facilitating. They can experiment with gimmicky coverages all they want ( see: Davis roams the court while Rui Hachimura is Jokic’s primary), but those only tend to work for so long before Jokic finds a solution. Eventually, if Los Angeles wants to conquer the champs, Davis needs to hold up mano- a- mano against Jokic and match his production. Edge: Nuggets.
Bench
Reggie Jackson and Spencer Dinwiddie probably cancel each other out. Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are inconsistent, but Taurean Prince and Gabe Vincent shouldn’t be striking much fear into them. The Pelicans would h ave been a problem in this area. They feature a topthree bench in t he N BA. But the Lakers and Nuggets both typically lose their bench minutes, so the second units should be fairly negligible in determining the outcome of the series. And for Denver, when Jokic isn’t on the floor, negligible is a win. Edge: Nuggets.
Coaching
There was a prolonged moment t his season when Darvin Ham was rumored to be on the hot seat. Maybe he still is. Either way, the ground is firm beneath Michael Malone’s feet for a reason. In Denver’s Game 82 last week, he moved past George Karl to become the second- winningest regular- season coach in franchise history. Edge: Nuggets.