Will Johnson repeat the pre-WWII isolationist error?
House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a critical decision that could align his legacy with that of Sen. Henry Cabot Lodge, who, in 1920, spearheaded the Senate Republicans’ rejection of the Treaty of Versailles, thus declining United States membership in the new League of Nations.
This was a stunning defeat for President Woodrow Wilson, who had championed the League as an alternative to the imperialism and power politics he considered responsible for World War I. The League sought to ensure peace by committing members to come to the defense of any other members who faced aggression. The prospect of a collective response would give pause to any aggressor otherwise tempted to attack a weaker neighbor.
But without the leadership of the United States, already the greatest power of the era, the League’s collective security mechanism lost all credibility. When Japan invaded China in 1931, the League sent a fact-finding team, but otherwise failed to act. Following Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia in 1935, the League imposed some ineffective sanctions, but was otherwise helpless to reverse Italy’s aggression. The League likewise stood by while Nazi Germany took the Sudetenland in 1938.
Through all these events, as the world stumbled toward a second world war within a generation, the United States sought safety in isolation. A meek giant, lulled into complacency by its geographic remoteness, the United States sat on the sidelines as aggressors threatened the peace in both Europe and Asia. Massive rallies organized under the slogan “America First” sought to avoid the kinds of sacrifices that had been made along the trench lines in Europe.
Alas, peace and security could not be bought so cheaply. American security was bound up with the security of others. The American economy could not thrive if hostile rivals used violence to gain exclusive control over vast concentrations of industrial power and raw materials. Our democracy would be imperiled in a world dominated by autocracies. The isolationist illusion was finally punctured by the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
Following World War II, a new generation of leaders accepted the responsibilities of global leadership and built a set of American-centered alliances to keep the peace in Europe and East Asia. These alliances have secured the basis for spheres of remarkable peace, prosperity, and democracy in both regions, even in the face of great power threats both past and present.
The continued stability and peace in Europe and Asia depend upon the strength and credibility of the American commitments to the security of our partners. And this is where Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker, faces a choice potentially as momentous as that of Senator Lodge. Johnson holds the fate of Ukraine in his hands, and so too the standing of America’s international leadership.
Although Ukraine is not a treaty ally, the United States, both individually and through NATO, has made public commitments to assist Ukraine in defending itself from Russian aggression. The very fact that the current arms aid package for Ukraine has been held up in Congress for months has already harmed the credibility of America’s word.
Should the standoff result in a failure to resume arms shipments — especially if followed by major Russian battlefield advances — America’s friends and rivals alike will be forced to reconsider their strategic position in a world of renewed American isolationism. Already, Donald Trump’s reckless threats to pull out of NATO have damaged the alliance regardless of whether he wins the presidency or carries through on the threat. Our allies now understand that America’s commitment to their security is in question. And so do our rivals.
Johnson should calm such fears by bringing an aid package for Ukraine to a vote in the House, where it would likely pass. If he fails to do so, then this moment may well be remembered as a turning point akin to the failure of the League of Nations vote in the Senate, and the first step into a new era of isolationism and insecurity.