As unlikely as it sounds, Iowa still controls its own destiny
IOWA CITY — Thinking back to the aftermath of a road loss to Maryland in February, Payton Sandfort knew the daunting nature of what Iowa basketball was about to face.
The Hawkeyes blew a second-half lead in that loss to the Terrapins. From there, Iowa was set to play Wisconsin (home), Michigan State (away), Illinois (away) and Penn State (home).
“You kind of look at the schedule ahead — you no to try not to try not to look at it in whole,” Sandfort said Tuesday. “(But) you see what's coming.”
There was rising evidence that, given what had happened in the past and what was ahead, that stretch would put a stake in Iowa's NCAA Tournament hopes.
Except, it hasn't.
Iowa took down Penn State 90-81 on Tuesday behind Sandfort's triple-double, the first in program history. The Hawkeyes, now winners of three of their last four, have plenty of reasons for optimism.
For as many times as it has seemed like their NCAA Tournament hopes would be crushed by now, Iowa has managed to avoid that fate. Here we are in late February, and Iowa's postseason dreams are still on the table. The Hawkeyes have earned that. Though it will not be easy, the opportunity to make the NCAA Tournament is still within reach.
“We went 3-1 in this stretch,” Sandfort said. “We've played some really good ball. This is everything you could ask for. That's why you've got to show up to practice. You've got to work as hard as you ever have because this is what we've worked for. We've (given) ourselves a chance, and that's what I'm proud of everybody for.”
At various points this season, being in this position didn't seem likely.
The Hawkeyes were destroyed during a three-game stretch in December, losing by a combined 54 points. By early January, the Hawkeyes had slipped to a 0-3 mark in Big Ten play. After stringing together three wins in a row to get back level in the conference, Iowa rode a rollercoaster, dropping five of eight games with each loss seeming to pull the Hawkeyes a step closer to an irreparable state.
Iowa, though, has not reached that point yet.
Since that February loss to Maryland, Iowa has gone 3-1 over the last four games, reviving optimism for the trajectory the Hawkeyes are on.
That began with an overtime win against Wisconsin, followed by a road victory over Michigan State. Iowa led in the second half in a hostile environment against Illinois but couldn't close it out. Then on Tuesday, Iowa took down Penn State.
Iowa, who had whiffed on signature opportunities earlier against Creighton, Iowa State, Purdue (twice), Wisconsin (in January) and Oklahoma, now has a resume that looks closer to being worthy of a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
The Hawkeyes showcased their depth on Tuesday — with all nine players called into action making it into the scoring column. Sandfort and Josh Dix each scored at least 20 points. The Hawkeyes shot startlingly efficient splits of 47.2% from the field, 50% from deep and 86.5% from the line. In what was a near wire-to-wire win, Iowa trailed for less than one minute all night.
“Today,” Penn State coach Mike Rhoades said, “they had more urgency than us.”
That is quite the compliment. For a team whose NCAA Tournament hopes are hanging by a thread, it is encouraging that they have been playing like it.
In a turbulent season, Iowa's ability to wait out the lows is perhaps one of its best traits.
“You might play well and the next game you get beat by 20 and everyone thinks you stink,” Rhoades said. “You just got to hang in there. You got to just get ready for the next one. You guys are gonna write what you want but the other team wants to win, too. That's how it goes.”
Iowa's final two regular season games present more opportunities but also come with significant challenges.
Iowa plays at Northwestern on Saturday, where it will try to knock off a team that hasn't lost a single Big Ten game at Welsh-Ryan Arena this season. Then Iowa finishes the regular season at home against No. 16 Illinois, a team that has arguably one of the most talented rosters in the league.
Trying to project what combination of wins would get Iowa into the NCAA Tournament is not a science. It also depends on what happens elsewhere in college basketball.
But if Iowa were to win the final two games of the regular season, it would probably only need to get one more victory in the Big Ten Tournament to be fairly safe. Split the last two regular season games and the Hawkeyes would need at least one in the Big Ten Tournament, but likely more than that.
It can, though, be more simple: Iowa can control its own destiny by winning and winning some more.
The opportunity is there if Iowa can find a way to seize it.
"We know what's at stake,” Sandfort said, “and we're going to find a way."