UNC aims for first win at Virginia since 2012
UNC basketball plays its penultimate road game of the season this weekend at Virginia.
The 10th-ranked Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3 ACC) face the Cavaliers (20-7, 11-5) on Saturday (4 p.m., ESPN) at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville.
UNC, which has lost eight in a row at JPJ, is aiming for its first win at Virginia since 2012. The Tar Heels haven’t played since their 15-point win against Virginia Tech on Feb. 16. The ‘Hoos are coming off a 34-point loss against the Hokies.
Here’s a look at some other things to know and a score prediction for the Tar Heels’ latest trip to Virginia.
Ryan heating up for UNC
Cormac Ryan isn’t just a shooter, but Ryan’s ability to knock down shots is the one factor that can help UNC make a major move in March. In the last three games, the Notre Dame transfer is 10 of 21 (47.6%) from 3-point range. He has four 3s in back-to-back games ahead of UNC’s trip to Virginia, where the Tar Heels have shot under 30% from beyond the arc during their eight-game drought in Charlottesville.
Virginia’s offense dependent on 3-pointers
The Cavaliers knock down 37% of their 3-pointers, good enough for 30th in the nation. That’s where the good offensive numbers end for Virginia, which is 276th in 2-point percentage (47.9) and 352nd in free-throw percentage (64.2), according to KenPom.com. UNC’s defense has limited opponents to 30.3% shooting from long range this season. Simply put: If Virginia isn’t hitting 3s, the Heels have a great shot at ending their skid in Charlottesville.
Cadeau, Tar Heels’ assists
UNC is coming off its best two-game stretch of assists this season, dishing out 19 at Syracuse before finishing with 18 against Virginia Tech. In their losing streak at Virginia, the Tar Heels have averaged 10.6 assists and 12.8 turnovers. Limiting turnovers in a low-possession game will be a major key for UNC, particularly freshman Elliot Cadeau, who had a season-worst five turnovers in two of the last three games.
Overall, Cadeau has been exceptional as a facilitator. It’ll be interesting to see how he navigates Virginia’s packline defense.
Score prediction
UNC 67, Virginia 60: Virginia has the defense to get it done and the ‘Hoos are a different team at home, but they haven’t played a top-25 team at JPJ this season. The Tar Heels have more ways to win and they’ve heard about their troubles in Charlottesville for long enough.
Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on X/Twitter.