South had high ‘excess’ COVID-19 deaths

Significant variations seen among demographic groups

OKLAHOMA CITY – During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, an additional 573,000 people died in the United States compared to the number of deaths expected under normal circumstances, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau research.

This is what the Census Bureau refers to as “excess mortality” – deaths from any cause above what is expected from mortality trends.

According to the Census Bureau, the expected national mortality rate for the first year of COVID-19 was 9.3 people dying per 10,000 per month.

Instead, the mortality rate observed was 11.1 per 10,000, meaning an extra 1.8 people per 10,000 died per month.

There were significant variations in the excess mortality rate in each state, as well as variations depending on age, sex and race and ethnicity. Southern states had some of the highest excess mortality rates in the country.

Excess mortality may include both those who died from the coronavirus and those who died during the pandemic but not necessarily because of it. For instance, many people postponed routine medical care, which could have led to health conditions not being discovered as early.

New York and New Jersey were hit particularly hard during the first wave of the pandemic, from April to June 2020. Both states saw an excess mortality rate of about 6 per 10,000 people per month. High rates were also seen in neighboring states like Massachusetts and Connecticut, and in Washington, D.C.

It was during the next wave, from July to September, that the high excess mortality rates shifted to the Deep South and Southwest. Most affected were Mississippi (3.7 per 10,000), Texas (3.5 per 10,000) and Louisiana (3.2 per 10,000).

The third wave was the longest and most devastating of the pandemic’s first year, lasting from October 2020 through March 2021. The Deep South and the Southwest again saw some of the highest excess mortality rates. Oklahoma led the pack with 3.7 excess deaths per 10,000 people per month.

The research also showed that excess mortality varied by race and ethnicity. Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals experienced higher rates of excess mortality than other groups. So did males age 65 and older. Hispanic people may be of any race.

The mortality gap widened between the country’s Black and white populations. The period also saw the erasure of the mortality advantage of the Hispanic population over the non-Hispanic white population.