Weather Permitting
Will we see an uptick in hurricanes this year?
If forecasters are correct, it looks like the Carolinas will face a busy hurricane season.
Sure, it's only April, but Colorado State meteorologists are calling for an extremely active 2024 season in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters cite record warmth in the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) and a waning El Nino as major reasons for the expected uptick. Among the highlights of the forecast:
● 23 named tropical systems (average is 14.5)
● 115 days with named storm activity (average is about 70)
● 11 hurricanes (average is 7.25)
● 5 major (Cat 3 or higher) storms (average is 3.25)
The forecast also anticipates a "well above-average probability" of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline.
Closer to home, the Carolinas are projected to see an elevated chance of tropical activity. Overall, the North Carolina coast, including the hurricane-prone Outer Banks, has an 85% chance of seeing at least a tropical storm and a 56% chance of at least a glancing blow from a hurricane.
The south-facing beaches and Wilmington are looking at a roughly 60% chance of tropical storms and a 33% chance of a hurricane, according to the report.
Overall, the expected conditions are mirrored in 2020, a hyper-active tropical season that saw 30 named storms and seven major hurricanes. At one point in September of that year, there were five named systems in the Atlantic basin at the same time.
The report echoes the elevated numbers of an Accuweather forecast released earlier this year. The official NWS report will be unveiled next month.
"Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early April, "the report noted. However, "This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook.
"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."
The complete 2024 forecast can be found at https://tropical.colostate.edu/ Forecast/2024-04.pdf