Who can lead Trumpism into 2024?
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s loyal base remains intensely loyal. A straw poll of par ticipants in the 2021 Conser vative Political Action Conference (CPAC) found 97% approve of the job Trump did as president, including 87% who approve strongly, while 95% said the Republican Par ty must continue to pursue Trump’s issues and agenda. “He’s literally the most popular figure we have ever had in the conser vative movement,” said pollster Jim McLaughlin, who conducted the sur vey.
So it was stunning that when Trump’s most fervent supporters were asked whom they would support in 2024 if Trump were running, only 55% said they would vote for the former president. That’s a majority, but just barely. Fully 45% of CPAC participants — who approve of Trump and believe in his agenda — want someone else to carry the banner of Trumpism into the next election.
That is not a repudiation of the former president. It’s a grudging recognition by many of his most ardent loyalists that there might be better candidates to advance his ideas, which remain popular even if Trump does not.
The 2020 election was a repudiation not of Trumpism, but of Trump. Pre-election polls showed a 49% plurality of Americans agreed with Trump over then-candidate Joe Biden on the issues. Trump’s loss wasn’t because voters wanted higher taxes, more regulation or open borders. He lost because he drove away millions of voters who approved of his policies, but did not approve of him. They liked his economic stewardship, but didn’t like the chaos of the past four years — especially during a pandemic.
In the five key swing states that flipped from Trump to Biden — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump suffered a net shift of 19 points among independents compared with 2016. He also suffered net shifts of 12 points among White men, 14 points among college-educated Whites, 6 points among workingclass Whites and 8 points among seniors — a group that propelled him into the White House four years earlier. Biden also held a double-digit advantage over Trump in flipped states on the question of who was more “honest and trustworthy,” with the former president under water on the question by 18 points.
Trump’s behavior and rhetoric before the election drove away persuadable voters, and his behavior and rhetoric after the election only served to confirm their choice. To retake the White House in 2024, Republicans need to win those voters back. And a significant portion of Trump’s most loyal suppor ters at CPAC seems to think that another standard-bearer would be best positioned to do that in four years.
This is true outside the CPAC ballroom as well.
So who might pick up Trump’s mantle? The two breakout stars of CPAC were pro-Trump governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Kristi Noem of South Dakota. In an open field, there will be no shor tage of contenders. The only thing that seems cer tain at this point is that it is highly unlikely an anti-Trump Republican will win the GOP nomination.
But none of the pro-Trump alternatives will get in the race if Trump runs. The nomination is Trump’s for the taking. The only question is whether he chooses to be king or kingmaker. Trump might or might not leave the presidential stage, but Trumpism is here to stay.