The Patriots looked content with overtime.
Finally, after most of a quarter spent climbing out of a hole they dug themselves, the Broncos had control of Sunday night’s game against lowly New England and a chance to actually win it.
Set up first-and-10 at their own 39-yard line with 1 minute, 42 seconds to go in a tie game, the Broncos had several paths to the finish line.
They only needed about 25 yards to get to field goal range and give kicker Wil Lutz a chance to win the game.
At worst, they should have made it to overtime.
Instead, they suffered a crushing 26-23 loss to the Patriots that will sting long after Christmas morning and likely well into an offseason almost sure to arrive without a trip to the playoffs for an eighth straight season.
How did it happen? Head coach Sean Payton went from playing conservative in the third quarter to pushing aggression to and past the line of rationality in the final two minutes.
Payton as a baseline knows what this team is. He said it himself after the game. It’s a group that has the talent to win games but is not so good that it can just roll out of bed and win any game. They have to execute well on the margins any given week, whether it’s on the road at Buffalo or at home against a bad Patriots team.
“Our margin for error right now is not what it needs to be, and we end up on the losing end of the game,” Payton said.
Not only because of the final two minutes, but at least in part because of it.
From 1:42 to the end of regulation: Denver went three-and-out in 33 seconds, not only failing to get into scoring range but then punting the ball back to New England quickly.
It started with a screen pass to Javonte Williams that lost three yards.
“They sent Cover 0, they read out of it,” center Lloyd Cushenberry told The Denver Post. “Good play by them.”
Then Wilson threw backto-back incompletions, failing to advance the ball or move the clock.
“We’re not throwing caution into the wind,” Payton said of the play-calling after the failed screen. “We kind of had some momentum throwing the ball. We were giving Russ time protection-wise.
“We were going to be smart, but we were not going to be careless with it. Let us just say that.”
It didn’t work and Denver punted quickly.
Not to fear. Bill Belichick, knowing he oversees one of the worst offenses in football and holding just one timeout to Payton’s three, called a run on first down from his own 19-yard line with 52 seconds left and got six yards.
He looked content to start anew in overtime. Payton, however, was not. He took his first timeout. Belichick ran again. Payton took a timeout again at 47 seconds.
That left third-and-3 at the New England 26-yard line.
That’s when Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe, aided by Payton’s aggressive timeout usage, burned the Broncos.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph simulated pressure but rushed just four. Zappe lofted a backshoulder throw up the left side to DeVante Parker, who worked back to the ball through man coverage from All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II for a 26-yard gain.
“Clearly we had to punt it, and we still had the ability to stop the clock,” Payton said. “We felt like we would get the stop. We were not able to.”
Two completions and 10 yards later, New England kicker Chad Ryland trotted out and buried Denver with a 56-yard bomb of a gamewinning field goal.
“They got a first down and once that happened, they had time on the clock,” safety Justin Simmons said. “They take a timeout, kind of talk it over, ‘get to this yard-line and you’ve got a chance to win it.’
“I think had we got a negative play on that first or second down, maybe they think about just going to OT and trying to win it there. We just didn’t execute as a defense down the stretch there and that’s what stings about it.”
After Elliott’s 6-yard run, the Broncos by ESPN’s metrics had a 54.7% chance of winning. By the time Parker hauled in the catch on third-and-3, New England’s chances swelled to 74.7%. Now the Broncos’ playoff odds stand at 4%.
In the end, Simmons had the situation exactly correct in the immediate aftermath except for one point: The Patriots were apparently thinking about overtime even before they got six yards on first down.
And Payton took timeouts until they considered something else.