Why Africa’s ageing leaders are keeping a close watch on DRC power struggle
After a tumultous week, the streets of the cities of the Democratic Republic of the Congo are likely to be quiet on Sunday as congregations file into churches to hear priests and preachers call for the Lord’s blessing on a troubled land.
Few doubt that the DRC is at a critical moment. The long-delayed elections that were finally held on 30 December could still be a turning point, leading the resource-rich nation to a better future. Or they could send the vast central African country, which has not known a peaceful transfer of power since it gained independence from Belgium in 1960, back into anarchy.
Supporters of Martin Fayulu, a widely respected former business executive and parliamentarian, accuse Félix Tshisekedi, leader of the DRC’s biggest opposition party, of doing a deal with outgoing president Joseph Kabila. The announced results bear no resemblance to the real vote, Fayulu has said.
Across the continent, the election and the post-poll power struggle pitting two opposition leaders against each otherhas been closely watched as almost everywhere else on the continent politics has reached a turning point. This year there will be more
than 20 elections in Africa – from Algeria on the Mediterranean to the economic powerhouse of Nigeria in the west and in South Africa, on the continent’s southern tip. Younger voters are demanding change from an ageing generation of leaders, who are now seen as repressive, not liberating. New dynamics have been unleashed by rapid urbanisation, economic growth and social media. A new crop of leaders is emerging.
One indicator is rising voter participation after a period of decline. “Where there is a sense that venal elites have stolen resources and are not delivering, there are strong protest votes. People sense they can really change things,” said Alex Vines, director of Chatham House’s Africa programme.
In the DRC, the stakes are higher than elsewhere. The 1997-2002 civil war killed five million people, but the importance attached to ensuring stability is a double-edged sword.
If it explains why the leaders of South Africa and Angola pushed Kabila, who took office in 2001, to hold elections, it also explains the absence of stronger statements voicing misgivings about possible manipulation to allow opposition leader Tshisekedi to take power.
Nic Cheeseman, an expert in African politics at Birmingham University, said many international actors were pulling their punches. There was a similar reaction to the military takeover in Zimbabwe in November 2017, which ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule and replaced him with ruling party stalwart Emmerson Mnangagwa, he said. “In Zimbabwe a coup was sold as a peaceful transition and that’s what everyone wanted. It seems very similar [in the DRC]. It’s a transition and relatively peaceful so far … so it is a way of making the continuity look like a change.”
Comments by French and Belgian ministers on rigging allegations in the DRC rankled with African officials, said Peter Fabricius, an analyst in South Africa. “Immediately, it became us and them. The attitude was: who are these outsiders from former colonial powers to tell us our elections aren’t good enough?”
Many African leaders also face difficult elections. In Algeria it is unclear if Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 81, will seek to prolong his rule but the political elite face deep anger and frustration. In Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari, 77, is seeking re-election, despite failing to deliver on promises to fight graft and defeat an Islamist insurgency. In South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa launched the manifesto of the African National Congress (ANC) on Saturday. The party has been in power since the end of the apartheid regime 25 years ago, but corruption and economic mismanagement has undermined support.Ramaphosa needs to keep ANC’s vote share above 60% to see off internal opponents – and relaunch its political fortunes in the future.
Some analysts see a shift away from democratic aspiration in Africa and a growing desire for more authoritarian government. Even as Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, surfs a wave of popular enthusiasm as he moves his huge nation away from a hybrid Chinese model, there is a fear the strategy apparently pursued by Kabila in the DRC will be attractive to some leaders.
Cheeseman said few powers had criticised an election campaign during which major opposition figures were forced into exile, human rights abuses were widespread and untried voting machines were deployed.
“If leaders can see that they can get away with that kind of election now … what is their motive to hold a better one in the future?” he said.