War has broken Yemen. A new route to peace is needed, now
Yemen has long faced structural, economic, social and security challenges. The war that started in 2015 has only exacerbated Yemen’s many previous woes. The conflict, gradually escalating from a political impasse into full-scale hostilities, is quickly becoming intractable.
The war, which entered its fifth year this week, with an exceedingly complex political and military situation, is being worsened by an overwhelming humanitarian crisis that keeps growing in scale where almost 80% of the population is in need of aid. The peace process is currently at a deadlock while the war is deepening grievances, ripping the social fabric and shattering an already fragile state.
Multiple factions are entangled in Yemen’s war: pro-government forces led by the president, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, are backed by a Saudi-led regional coalition, and are facing antigovernment forces led by the Houthis. A third camp seeking to re-establish an independent southern state is currently locked in an uneasy marriage of
convenience with the pro-government side. The infighting and the Saudi-led military intervention has resulted in thousands of civilian deaths, with estimates varying from 10,000 at very least, to 60,000. It has got so bad that children are dying from malnutrition and disease – according to UN, a child dies every 10 minutes because of lack of basic medical attention.
The UN-led peace process has so far produced little in terms of a tangible roadmap to a resolution or significant results. There have been theories and arguments criticising the process, but it seems the problems crippling progress revolve around a failure to fully understand the complex nature of the conflict – and choosing overly simplistic approaches.
The UN approach so far has been all too cosmetic, without taking into consideration the role of external actors in the conflict, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Initiatives to stop the war that are not holistic and don’t address the root causes are not only short-term but are also becoming part of the problem, with valuable time and resources wasted on futile endeavours that only serve to prolong the conflict.
The root causes lie in the failure of the Yemeni government to address and resolve mounting challenges arising from political marginalisation, economic disenfranchisement, state mismanagement and the effects of an extractive, corrupt state with weak institutions. These accumulative and systematic failures since the 1960s – compounded by cycles of violence, political upheaval and lack of institutional capacities – finally erupted in the war we see today. Ceasefires and political agreements between only the two main factions have failed to take hold for a lack of comprehensiveness and wider buy-in from all those involved in the war.
An understanding of the Yemen problem is not only pertinent but of paramount importance to the design and proposition of solid solutions. The peace process is desperately in need of recalibration.
Meanwhile, no amount of aid will ever meet the exponentially growing humanitarian demands – it is critical to change the approach from basic delivery of aid to supporting resilience of local communities through sustainable development projects.
The process needs to not only focus on immediate end of hostilities but on peace-building and reconciliation. Military options have failed miserably and devastated the whole nation – there can only be political solutions. This requires consultations with all the various local factions and external actors – ultimately, all the parties will need to agree on a framework for drawing up a clear and precise roadmap to peace. Anything less than this, or in any way ambiguous and without everyone on board, is doomed to fail.
•Hisham Al-Omeisy is a political and information analyst based in Sana’a, Yemen