MLB playoff preview: will the Dodgers finally hold their nerve?
The wildcard games have been decided and the business end of the season is now upon us. Nothing is guaranteed in the postseason but we’ve ranked the teams in rough order of strength as the battle hots up.
8) Atlanta Braves (regular season record: 97-65)
Current form: The Braves built on an upstart 2018 playoff berth with an outstanding 2019 season. Their 97 wins were the most for the team since 2003.
How they can win: This is a more balanced unit than the team that entered the 2018 postseason. Ronald Acuña Jr hit 40 homers and stole 37 bases. Mike Soroka – at 22, just a year older than Acuña – lost just four of his 29 starts. With veterans like first baseman Freddie Freeman, third baseman Josh Donaldson and pitcher Dallas Keuchel, the Braves are a pennant contender.
How they can lose: The Braves traded for two relievers – Mark Melancon and Shane Greene – to fortify a shaky bullpen, and neither of them were very consistent. Melancon improved in September and didn’t allow a run over his final seven appearances, but it’s not a trustworthy collection.
Player to watch: Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s a generational talent and is one of the most thrilling players to watch hit, run the bases and play centerfield since Ken Griffey Jr.
Why should you care? They are a young, exciting team that plays with the kind of flair once dismissed as arrogant by traditionalists. They’re exciting, they’re talented and they always appear to be having fun.
7) Washington Nationals (regularseason record: 93-69)
Current form: After losing 31 of their first 50 games, the Nationals surged to a 93-69 record. On Tuesday, they advanced to the NLDS after scoring three late runs in a thrilling 4-3 comeback win over the Milwaukee Brewers in the wildcard playoff. They’ll face the Dodgers starting Thursday.
How they can win: The Nationals have a ton of talent, they have just struggle to maximize it. Stars Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg both pitched on Tuesday, so they’ll turn to lefty Patrick Corbin – who has a 0.59 ERA in his past five starts against Los Angeles – to start Game 1. MVP candidate Anthony Rendon (.319/.412/.598, 34 home runs) and 20-year-old Juan Soto (.282/.401/.548, 34 home runs) lead
the offense.
How they can lose: Their bullpen is laughable. Outside of righty Daniel Hudson (1.44 ERA), no regular Nationals relief pitcher finished with an ERA under 3.91.
Player to watch: Shortstop Trea Turner lacks plate discipline (43 walks to 113 strikeouts), but his speed (35 stolen bases in 40 attempts) and power (19 home runs) can alter a playoff series.
Why should you care? The Nationals have not won a playoff series since moving from Montreal in 2005. After Tuesday’s miraculous win over Milwaukee, are they ready to finally make a World Series run? Or does another cruel end to the season await?
6) Minnesota Twins (regular-season record: 101-61)
Current form: Few thought the Twins would win the AL Central, but rookie manager Rocco Baldelli guided a young, powerful offense and a consistent pitching staff to their first division title since 2010. Their 101 wins were the franchise’s highest regular-season win total since 1965.
How they can win: The Twins hit a MLB-record 307 home runs in 2019. Five different players hit more than 30 homers and six different players set their career-highs in that category. In short, they crush the ball and are equipped to win high-scoring games.
How they can lose: The Twins don’t have the quality of starting pitching that their opponents do. Twenty-five year-old ace Jose Berrios is prone to inconsistency. The permanently underappreciated and durable Jake Odorizzi will likely start Game 2. After that, it gets dicey: they may turn to the struggling Martin Perez or gamble on rookie Randy Dobnak, who allowed just two earned runs in three September starts.
Key player: Nelson Cruz signed a one-year deal with the Twins in the offseason and finished 2019 in the topfive of every statistic measuring hardhit balls. At 38 years old, Cruz remains one of baseball’s elite power hitters.
Why should you care? They’re a small-market team trying to dethrone the mighty Yankees by playing the same brand of power-focused baseball. There will be plenty of offense for fans to enjoy.
5) St Louis Cardinals (regular-season record: 91-71)
Current form: St Louis return to the playoffs after an uncharacteristic three-year absence and feature plenty of familiar faces – catcher Yadier Molina and infielder Matt Carpenter among them.
How they can win: While most teams emphasize home runs and strikeouts, St Louis values putting the ball in play and pitching to soft contact. The Cardinals finished 24th in home runs in 2019 while no other division winner finished lower than eighth.
How they can lose: This team can’t win high-scoring games. The Cardinals finished last among all playoff qualifiers in runs scored (729) but possess a strong run differential (+102) because of their reliable pitching. To win, they must avoid surrendering more than five runs.
Key player: Jack Flaherty. Over his last 15 starts, Flaherty compiled a 0.91 ERA, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and limited opposing hitters to a .142 batting average.
Why should you care? The Cardinals’ last two championship teams were not the best in baseball before starting the playoffs. Sometimes, culture is powerful when playing playoff games, and St Louis historically do it better than pretty much any other franchise.
4) Tampa Bay Rays (regular-season record: 96-66)
Current form: The Rays defeated the Oakland Athletics, 5-1, in the AL wildcard game by hitting four home runs and not allowing an extra-base hit. With an innovative pitching strategy and a lineup of undervalued hitters, the Rays, whose payroll totals $53m, finished the season ahead of the defending champion Boston Red Sox, whose payroll is $204 million.
How they can win: The Rays are masters of deceiving opposing hitters. It doesn’t matter who starts the game in Tampa; manager Kevin Cash will use five or more pitchers in a game so the opposing lineup is never comfortable or familiar. Names like Nick Anderson, Emilio Pagan and Diego Castillo are unknown to casual fans, but are some of the most effective pitchers in the game.
How they can lose: If any of their top relief pitchers struggle, the bullpen is subject to severe fatigue that won’t endure a month of playoff pressure.
Key Player: No single player epitomizes the Rays’ success, but outfielder Yandy Diaz demonstrates why they’re such a remarkable franchise. Diaz entered 2019 with one career home run in 299 plate appearances. On Wednesday, he hit two majestic opposite-field home runs to help clinch an ALDS berth.
Why should you care? The Rays have the smallest payroll in baseball and are littered with players forgotten or cut by richer organizations. There may not be a bigger underdog in American sports.
3) New York Yankees (regular-season) record: 103-59
How they can win: Much like the Twins, their opponents in the Divisional Series, the Yankees crush the ball. Minnesota set a MLB record this season with 307 home runs; the Yankees hit 306. And that was despite getting just 18 games from one of the game’s most feared power hitters, Giancarlo Stanton. In a season where the home run is king and great offenses are commonplace, the Yankees’ batting still stands out.
How they can lose: It’s unclear how the Yankees plan on using their starting pitchers in the playoffs, primarily because none of them have been very reliable outside of Game 1 starter James Paxton. The Yankees have the game’s best bullpen, but they risk overworking it without reliable performances from starters beyond Paxton and ace Luis Severino, who has started just three games this season due to injury.
Key Player: Luis Severino. The flamethrowing righty is one of the game’s best starters when he’s healthy, but his light workload in 2019 is worrisome entering the postseason. If he’s his usual self, the Yankees are equipped to make the World Series. If he’s not, manager Aaron Boone risks exhausting his bullpen.
Why should you care? Every Aaron Judge at-bat is a masterclass in hitting, the bullpen features three different pitchers who appear to defy physics with their breaking pitches and Yankee Stadium remains an intimidating environments for any opposing team.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (regularseason record: 106-56)
Current form: The Dodgers exceeded their lofty standards by setting a franchise record with 106 wins. They remain the class of the National League and are heavy favorites to return to the World Series for the third consecutive year.
How they can win: The Dodgers won 106 games because of their ability to find production out of untested rookies and utility players. They don’t only possess an elite offense and pitching staff; their incredible depth offsets the injuries and poor performances that often derail other teams.
How they can lose: Closer Kenley Jansen was once one of baseball’s most trusted relief pitchers, but compiled the worst season of his career in 2019. If manager Dave Roberts doesn’t trust him in close games, he’ll have to enlist pitchers who lack Jansen’s playoff experience.
Player to watch: Cody Bellinger. He is just 24 years old but will likely win NL MVP after hitting .305 with 47 home runs, stealing 15 bases and showcasing elite defense. Bellinger’s physical tools are remarkable, but his defensive instincts and excellent baserunning separate him from comparably talented players.
Why should you care? The Dodgers have not won a World Series since 1988. Will Clayton Kershaw, considered by many to be the generation’s best starting pitcher, exorcise his reputation as a poor playoff pitcher and finally win a championship?
1) Houston Astros (regular-season record: 107-55)
Current form: The Astros aren’t simply a great team; they’ve built a powerhouse through meticulous research, expert player development and savvy acquisitions. They set a franchise record with 107 wins this season and are expected by most pundits to win their second championship in three years.
How they can win: It feels impossible to win four times in seven games against them when three elite pitchers – Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke – are starting the first three games. If the pitching didn’t intimidate opposing teams enough, consider that the offense led every major statistical category except home runs and RBI while logging the fewest strikeouts and the most walks.
How they can lose: Their bullpen lacks the firepower of some other teams, but it also seldom causes the team trouble. The Astros don’t have any weaknesses, but need to be sure that their best players avoid slumping.
Player to watch: Alex Bregman. Bregman will likely lose to Angels slugger Mike Trout for AL MVP, but the 25year-old led the league with 119 walks and 292 times on base to complement 41 homers. On a team full of young stars, Bregman might be the best.
Why should you care? The Astros are the clear favorites to win in a field with two other elite teams in the Yankees and Dodgers. Even if they don’t win the title, what they’ve built is simply remarkable.