How the 49ers transformed from losers to a perfectly balanced Super Bowl contender
What a remarkable turnaround this season has been for the San Francisco 49ers. A year ago, the team was already well into their offseason. Questions were starting to bubble about whether the coach-quarterback-GM axis of Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo and John Lynch was all promise and no substance.
The Niners never wavered. There were no leaks, no dispensing of blame, none of the typical stuff that comes when a franchise has yet to ignite and is picking at the top of the draft again. Instead, they doubled down on their plan. The makings of something were there: the head coach was obviously a schematic savant; Lynch said all the right things, and had a defined vision; Garoppolo flashed talent. They stuck to the “process”, the most overused word in US sports. And, wow, did it ever work: From a 4-12 record to 13-3 in one year.
The Niners have mauled teams on both sides of the ball all season. Only the 2007 Patriots have ranked in the top seven on offense anddefense in downto-down efficiency and failed to win the whole thing. The 49ers enter Sunday’s game seventh in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA.
It is that balance that defines this team. The exotic stuff comes on offense: they have paired the quickest running-back group in the league with a diverse passing game and all kinds of nifty play-action concepts. Add to that an offensive line that can dance with the best of them and a tight end who’s not only the most efficient routerunner in the NFL but the best blocker of any skill position player.
The star of the show is Shanahan, though. Architect of one of the greatest offenses in modern NFL history in
Atlanta, it’s taken him a while to get all his pieces in place in San Francisco. This year, however, Shanahan has everything he wants: speed all over the field; a weapon who can win one-onone; and an offensive line that prioritizes side-to-side movement over raw power.
It’s the system and coach that’s key, not the quarterback. Shanahan has tried to turn Garoppolo into 2017 Alex Smith. Get the ball out on time, and I promise you the players will be open. Just don’t chuck the game away.Garoppolo has been efficient while trying to curb some of the freelancing tendencies that can lead to turnovers – he has 13 interceptions so far this season. When he curbs those base instincts, the Niners offense has been close to unstoppable.
Shanahan’s brilliance is not in particular play designs, most of which can be found elsewhere in the league. It’s the timing of the plays he calls. No detail goes unnoticed. The hands of a defensive back here, the body language of the defensive coordinator there. Shanahan sees those little things on tape that lesser coaches miss:
Each tip allows the coach to run the same plays over and over again, but sequence them in varying orders to keep his opponents guessing.
Things aren’t much different defensively, albeit with more star power. It’s hard to scheme up a pass-rush the way you can a passing game on offense. Either you need superstars up front who can win one-on-one or two-on-one (like the 2007 Giants) or a secondary littered with future Hall of Famers, who take away everything on the back-end and buy the pass-rush an extra couple of beats – think of Seattle’s Legion of Boom. The Niners have tried to build the best of both worlds. They’ve imported that simplistic Seattle scheme on the back-end but added a batch of first-round pass-rushers to the mix.
You’ve heard all about the defensive line by now: four drafted in the first-round since 2015. The results have been remarkable. The defense is sixth in the league in takeaways and second in adjusted sack rate, felling quarterbacks on 9% of plays — a number that would have topped the league any year in the past decade.
Nick Bosa is the star of the show, a rookie already playing at an All-Pro level. He has a special combination of springs, hands, and tenacity. His relentlessness has infected the entire team; they fly around with a recklessness that borders on violence. They’re not out to stop you, they’re here to break you. It’s an old-school style, built in the image of Lynch, who was a bone-crushing safety during his playing days.
Lynch has built this roster carefully and methodically, using all the avenues available. The core of their defense has come through the draft – Bosa, Jimmy Ward, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner— with a sprinkling of free agent and trade additions to push it to the next level: Richard Sherman, Dee Ford. All of them have been significant contributors, on and off the field.
They built a rudimentary scheme, but one that amplifies the ability of their stars. Playing fast is all that matters. Shut your eyes and you can picture any of the Niners’ 15-wins this season: force turnovers on defense, control the ball on offense. When the Niners have been in trouble it’s been because Garoppolo has thrown a dopey interception or two. Stick to the script, get out the way, and Garoppolo’s teammates have been too overwhelming for anyone to contain.
Contrast that with Sunday’s opponents. They have an all-time great quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, already at the top of the NFL just three years into his career. Land such a prospect and everything else slots into place easily, every decision you make as a franchise looks smart.
Everything the Chiefs do is about Mahomes and their passing game, a terrifying supernova that’s ready to explode at any time. Only the Mahomesled crew and the Chiefs’ special teams are a real threat. The defense has talent, but it’s more dependent on individual matchups than the Niners’ unit.
San Francisco have built the most complete roster the NFL has seen in recent years, staying true to the ideals of their general manager and coach. It will take a remarkable Mahomes performance to deny them a Championship.