Bernie won, but what now? Our panelists' verdict on the New Hampshire results
Cas Mudde: ‘Will Klobuchar be the last woman standing?’
The New Hampshire primary confirmed that Bernie Sanders is the only candidate certain to make it to the Democratic convention in July – even if he gained only half of his 2016 support, as he did in Iowa. His biggest success in New Hampshire was the disappointing result for Elizabeth Warren, like him a progressive from a neighboring state. Barring a shock success in South Carolina, Sanders might have the progressive vote to himself by the end of the month.
In sharp contrast, and equally unexpected, the moderate vote is wide open. As Joe Biden seems on his way out, rapidly losing his main campaign issue – electability – after two very disappointing results, Pete Buttigieg is picking up his donors and voters. But both will soon face the billionaire Michael Bloomberg, whose deep pockets and endless ads are starting to pay off in the polls.
The main story of the New Hampshire primary was, however, the Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar. After a very disappointing fifth place in the neighbor state of Iowa, her campaign got a massive boost from the New Hampshire debate, raising $2m in 24 hours, and massively increasing her support in the state within a week. While her road to the Democratic convention remains far from certain, there is a big chance that Klobuchar soon will be the last woman standing in the primaries, and that is something few saw coming, maybe not even the senator herself.
Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia. His latest book is The Far Right Today
Jill Filipovic: ‘Don’t count Biden or Warren out just yet’
Here is the story you’re going to hear about the New Hampshire primary: that it was Amy Klobuchar’s night, and that her campaign has new momentum. And indeed, after a strong debate showing, she has seen a notable spike, going from being one of the many at the bottom to one of the few toward the top.
But pundits like a horserace and, to mix metaphors, there’s an advantage to being the underdog. Elizabeth Warren has hovered around third in the polls for months; she was third in Iowa. And yet her showing was met with a shrug. This is affecting the coverage of Sanders, too. Even though he won New Hampshire, the narrative is that he did worse than last time. Of course he did! There are a ton of candidates in the race – it follows that votes will be divided more broadly. Novelty isn’t always the most accurate way to cover a race.
Biden is already in South Carolina, the first primary state with a large African American population – and African Americans have overwhelmingly not yet cast their ballots for anyone in the primary. Neither have other important segments of the Democratic base, including people who live in big cities. Nevada is up next, which has larger populations of color across the board
than Iowa and New Hampshire, especially Latinos. But it’s worth noting that, because predominantly white, rural states like Iowa and New Hampshire have precedence in the Democratic race, large segments of the Democratic base have been shut out of this decision so far. That’s a big problem.
That’s why it’s important not to count Warren or Biden out yet. And it’s foolish to overestimate any candidate’s momentum – and irresponsible to make that the story rather than what is by definition a slow, messy and adversarial process where different communities with different priorities will cast their votes differently.
Jill Filipovic is the author of the The H-Spot: The Feminist Pursuit of Happiness
Art Cullen: ‘Klobuchar is the new credible centrist candidate’
It’s no surprise that Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg came out on top in New Hampshire as they bounced out of muddled Iowa. I was so bleary-eyed from watching a year’s worth of TV debates that I couldn’t see how Amy Klobuchar’s performance last weekend would vault her into the game. But it did. She parlayed a strong effort in Iowa into a finish just behind Buttigieg. Each of them heads to South Carolina with many questions in the African American community. Buttigieg had problems with his police department as South Bend mayor and Klobuchar was a prosecutor from Minneapolis who carries the same baggage Kamala Harris did.
If Joe Biden felt a gut punch in Iowa, he got his duff kicked in New Hampshire. Neither he nor Elizabeth Warren mustered a single delegate. Biden is counting on a rescue in South Carolina. Warren, short on money, argues that she is the unity candidate who will remain standing when Buttigieg falters or Sanders hits his ceiling. But Sanders won. And Buttigieg is gaining the nation’s attention with cash in hand. Klobuchar has emerged as a credible centrist candidate who can win a place like Wisconsin or Michigan, which gave Trump the difference in 2016.
Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times in north-west Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing. He is a Guardian US columnist and is author of the book Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope in America’s Heartland, just out in paperback
Lloyd Green: ‘Warren and Biden live on borrowed time’
In New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders held on, Pete Buttigieg stalled in second and Amy Klobuchar surged to third. Although Mike Bloomberg and his war chest await all of them on Super Tuesday, Sanders’ win is significant: with the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, no Democrat has won the nomination after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.
As for Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden, both finished with sub-par performances. Once upon a time, Biden was a frontrunner and a vice-president. Instead, he and Warren are on borrowed time.
Looking ahead, the Sanders campaign has reason to exhale not gloat. The nation’s first primary bore a decidedly moderate hue. Without Hillary Clinton as a foil and facing a crowded field, Sanders looked vulnerable. He has emerged as the undisputed candidate of the left but his crossover appeal remains uncertain.
Klobuchar is the evening’s star. Her Friday night debate performance made a difference, a reminder that voters can reward those who take prudent risks.
Klobuchar’s shout-out to Mitt Romney, a one-time Massachusetts governor, fell on welcome ears. In other words, the desire for normalcy and bipartisanship hasn’t disappeared. At a minimum, Klobuchar looks like a solid vice-presidential pick.
Lloyd Green was opposition research counsel to George HW Bush’s 1988 campaign and served in the Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
Derecka Purnell: ‘Elizabeth Warren’s strategy isn’t working’
Bernie Sanders beat Pete Buttigieg in the New Hampshire Primary by more than 4,000 votes. CNN’s exit polls reveal that Sanders beat every candidate in nearly every category. He secured votes from half of voters under 25, 36% of voters age 26-44, half of “very liberal” voters, half of white women without college degrees, one-third of white men without college degrees, a quarter of white men with college degrees and 30% of people who reported healthcare as a top issue.
Sanders received 32% of the nonwhite vote, double what Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg received. Although New Hampshire is not representative of the US demographics, Sanders’ multi-racial, multi-generational movement to transform our democracy resonated with the majority of white voters there.
I was shocked by Elizabeth Warren’s voter turnout. She finished fourth behind Amy Klobuchar – with half as many votes. After Warren claimed that Sanders said that a woman could not win the election, she transitioned from a tacit progressive alliance with him, towards a vocal gendered alliance with Klobuchar, a moderate. Warren affirmed this during her debates, on interviews and Tuesday tonight after congratulating Sanders and Buttigieg for placing well. I do not think it’s working. Still, Warren’s positive attitude persists: “This is going to be a long race.”
Derecka Purnell is a social movement lawyer and writer based in Washington DC
Jessa Crispin: ‘Bernie won. Must we make this about Klobuchar?’
Oh, we decided to do this again, did we? We still don’t know what happened in Iowa but we’re just going to plow forward with this whole process, even as we have a member of the European parliament pointing out just how insane all of this looks from afar. Cool, cool. I’m sure it’ll all be fine.
The media look like they are going to try to make this a story about Amy Klobuchar’s emergence in the race, with a decent showing tonight and some fundraising success since Friday’s debate, but by now we know they’ll do just about anything to avoid talking about Bernie Sanders’ success. Klobuchar has been saying throughout her campaign that her challenge is to let peopleget toknow her, and once we do know her, we will support her. My guess is she thinks if she keeps telling us that story about raising money for her campaign from ex-boyfriends enough times, we’ll think “oh that Amy, what a card” and cast our ballots.
But getting to know Klobuchar means learning unsavory things about her time as a prosecutor, such as the possible railroading job she and the police did on the probably innocent 16-year-old Myon Burrell, accused of murder. She faced harsh questions about that case on The View, and she handled it awkwardly and inelegantly, trying to deflect blame on to “structural racism”. So as much fun as it has been to watch her rain righteous hellfire on Pete Buttigieg with the purest form of hatred I have ever seen in a campaign, this story is not going away, nor should it. But if Klobuchar can’t even acknowledge let alone explain past abuses of power, nor show humility or candor when asked about the issue, surely that helps us to get to know her a bit better, too.
Jessa Crispin is the author of the Public Intellectual podcast