Coronavirus outbreak a pandemic 'in all but name', says expert
The World Health Organization has played down fears of a coronavirus pandemic sweeping the world, despite sudden serious outbreaks in Italy and Iran, but some experts said they believed it was now inevitable.
“Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear,” said the WHO’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, at a briefing.
We are not there yet, said Tedros. “What we see are epidemics in different parts of the world affecting different countries in different ways.”
The word pandemic is used to describe a serious disease that is spreading in an uncontrolled way around the world. China, he pointed out, appeared to have contained it. The international team sent in by the WHO, which is about to report its findings, has said the virus probably peaked between 23 January and 2 February.
Tedros added, however, that “the sudden increase in new cases is certainly very concerning”.
Most worrying is the arrival of the coronavirus in Italy and Iran with no prior warning, presumably spread by people who were asymptomatic carriers. Italy now has 219 cases and seven people have died. The figures in Iran are disputed, but some reports claimed there had been 50 deaths in the city of Qom, which is a pilgrimage site.
Other experts said it was hard to believe that Covid-19 would not now spread worldwide.
“We now consider this to be a pandemic in all but name, and it’s only a matter of time before the World Health Organization starts to use the term in its communications,” said Dr Bharat Pankhania, from the University of Exeter Medical School.
“This gives us focus and tells us that the virus is now appearing in other countries and transmitting far afield from China. However, it doesn’t change our approach in monitoring the outbreak. In the UK, there’s no need to move towards mitigation strategies, as so far, our containment policies are working. We only have 13 cases, and they are contained and controlled. I expect we will continue with this containment strategy while it’s successful.”
“A pandemic means an infectious disease is spreading out of control in different regions of the world. We already have a Covid-19 epidemic in China and, more recently, large outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy. If those outbreaks cannot be brought under control, then Covid-19 would fit the criteria of a pandemic,” said Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh.
“The immediate implication is that many different countries around the world may be sources of Covid-19 infections. This makes it much harder for any one country to detect and contain imported cases and trying to do so will place ever greater demands on national health systems.
Tedros said the new cases outside China reinforced the need for all countries to ensure they were ready for the arrival of Covid-19. “This is the time for all countries, communities and families and individuals to focus on preparing,” he said. “We do not live in a binary black and white world. It is not either/or. We must focus on containing while doing all we can to prepare for a potential pandemic.”
That would mean safeguarding the elderly and those with health problems and weakened immune systems, who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus.
Dr Michael Ryan, WHO’s director of emergencies, said a flu pandemic was more recognisable because of the knowledge scientists have of the way influenza viruses behave. “What we don’t understand yet in Covid-19 is the absolute transmission dynamics,” he said.
The Italian government has introduced stringent internal travel restrictions, closing off the worst-hit areas in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto. About 50,000 people in 11 northern Italian towns have been under lockdown since Friday night, with police patrolling the streets and fines being imposed on anyone caught entering or leaving outbreak areas.
Austria suspended train services over the Alps to Italy for about four hours late on Sunday before restarting them after two travellers tested negative for coronavirus. A train carrying about 300 passengers from Venice, in Italy, to Munich, in Germany, was halted on the Italian side of the Brenner Pass before being allowed to continue its journey after the two tested negative, authorities said.
France’s junior transport minister, Jean-Baptiste Djebbari, said on Monday that there was no need to close down transport borders between France and Italy.
“Closing down the borders would make no sense, as the circulation of the virus is not just limited to administrative borders,” he told BFM Business.