What Super Tuesday revealed about black voters: they're not a monolith
Joe Biden surprised many political pundits by securing a majority of state delegate wins in the 14-state contest known as Super Tuesday.
The former vice-president now leads the progressive Bernie Sanders by more than 70 delegates in the narrowing race to secure the Democratic nomination for president. Biden’s comeback was delivered in some measure by strong support from older, black voters, primarily in the south.
Exit polls from Super Tuesday show he won 63% of black Democratic voters casting their ballots in Virginia, 72% in Alabama and about 60% in Texas and North Carolina.
But what Super Tuesday also delivered is important confirmation of what analysts have been saying about black voters all along: they’re not a monolith.
African Americans are often depicted as a single, unified voting bloc loyal to the Democratic party. But these blanket characterizations can hide the diversity of their voting habits and preferences.
Analysts say understanding these nuances can help the Democrats better identify the path to victory in November as well as foreshadow challenges to the hoped for “blue wave”.
Here’s what Super Tuesday showed about the black voters who participated:
Region played a role
Black voters in northern states are different from those of the south. Southern blacks, more moderate than their northern counterparts, overwhelmingly supported Biden.
Biden won about seven out of 10 black votes in Alabama and Virginia, and nearly half of all black votes in Tennessee and North Carolina.
Biden’s strength among black communities also made the difference in narrowly winning Texas, whereAfrican Americans make up about onefifth of the Democratic primary electorate and Biden won at least three times more of their votes than Sanders did.
What the data overlooks is how these races were more competitive in states where black voters from the north are migrating, such as Texas, North Carolina and Virginia.
An influx of new, more liberal black voters from the north are already shaping Democratic races. But even in states that have seen such large jumps in new residents, their established community of moderate black counterparts managed to seal the deal for Biden.
“Those young progressives may be motivated for a movement but it’s their older, moderate aunties and uncles who show up to vote,” said Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist, ahead of Biden’s victory there.
In the south, showing up to vote is exactly what older, African Americans did, and it may have been the moderate momentum needed to fend off a progressive insurgency.
There is a growing generational divide
With former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg’s exit from the presidential race, Biden became the election cycle’s youngest male candidate at the ripe age of 77, a year behind Sanders and, until he dropped out on Wednesday,
Mike Bloomberg, both 78.
But the voice of the youth is firmly behind Sanders, 2016 and 2020’s oldest candidate.
Sanders’ platform of democratic socialism appears to resonate with voters under 30. When it came to young people, the Vermont senator comfortably beat Biden in every state’s exit polling.
The same holds true among young, black voters. Although Biden’s Obamaera legacy sustained his loyalty primarily among black elders, black Democrats under 30 overwhelmingly supported Sanders.
Much of Sanders’ popularity stems from his progressive stance on issues such as wealth redistribution and ending mass incarceration, which had garnered the support of young activists and celebrities including Killer Mike and Cardi B.
In contrast, Biden’s role in the controversial 1994 crime bill and infamously loose recollections of his civil rights history has younger African Americans ready for change. Analyst Van Jones cautioned Democrats not to “lose track of those young, black voters”, explaining that “they’re excited about” something and “they don’t see it in Biden”.
“There’s an urgency that he has,” he said. “[It’s] a sense that ‘this system is rigged against us and nobody wants to fight for us’.
“They see a fighter in Bernie,” he added.
Not all minorities groups vote the same
Black voters may have delivered for Biden, but Latino voters are unmistakably “feeling the Bern”. While research from Pew underscores that all voters of color overwhelming support Democratic agendas, who they back and why is as diverse as the party itself.
Latinos voters are some of Sanders’ most loyal supporters and have already delivered delegates in the early races in Iowa and Nevada. That trend continued in a close race in California that Sanders has won with almost an estimated 50% of the Latino vote.
And, despite losing the state overall, Sanders won 41% percent of the Latino vote in Texas.
Biden served as vice-president in an Obama administration that raked in a record number of deportations, and faced criticism over a failure to pass immigration reform guaranteeing permanent protections for Dreamers.
A checkered past on Latino issues could spell trouble for the Democratic establishment as the election draws near. Although black voters remain the backbone of the Democratic base, Latinos surpassed African Americans as the largest US minority group in 2003.
This year will mark the first time Latinos represent the largest minority voting group. While black voters are the crucial bloc to secure this cycle, who Democrats pick to fall in line behind could have long-term consequences on its demographic support in the future.
The one commonality: voter suppression
Young or old, black or brown, voter suppression stands to impact each community, although differently. Across the country, pollsters on Super Tuesday reported exceptionally long lines, with some waiting upwards of seven hours to vote.
Across the US state election boards, mostly under Republican governors, have limited access to voting that disproportionately targets communities of color and young people.
These groups are among the most consistently Democratic voters.
In Texas, more than 750 polling stations have been closed since the US supreme court invalidated key components of the voting rights act in 2013. These stations were purposefully, and almost entirely, in districts where Latinos and African Americans are voting majorities.
Some voting advocates noted that frustrated constituents gave up and didn’t vote after showing up to the wrong polling station, or waiting in line for hours.
Democrats sounded the alarm that obstacles may continue into the general election.
The presidential primaries continue when six states – Missouri, Michigan, Idaho, Mississippi, Washington and North Dakota – head to the polls 10 March.
Of these next states, only Missouri and Mississippi have significant black populations, representing nearly onefifth and three-fourths of the Democratic electorate, respectively.