People will need face masks if 2-metre rule relaxed, says Sage
Scientists have warned ministers that people will need to wear facecoverings and minimise their time together if they sit closer than 2 metres apart, according to the latest tranche of documents released by the UK government’s committee of experts.
The advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) reflects the enormous challenge of reopening pubs, cafes and restaurants any time soon, despite mounting pressure on the government from some Tory MPs to relax physical distancing rules in England.
Boris Johnson has so far resisted demands to reduce the limit from 2 metres to 1 metre to help businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, to reopen over the summer.
Sage stressed the importance of distancing to prevent the spread of the virus as recently as last week. In situations where people would be face-toface and less than 2 metres apart, the scientists “strongly recommended” that protective measures be in place, including face coverings, and that efforts be made to minimise “duration of exposure”.
The advice prepared by Sage scientists on 4 June was among nearly 40 new documents released on Friday as part of the government’s efforts to improve transparency around the scientific evidence the committee considers and the advice it provides to ministers.
Other Sage documents point to the extreme concern scientists had about the introduction of social bubbles whereby households could meet up to form small social groups. In mid-May, the experts urged “strong caution” over bringing in bubbles when other distancing measures had only just been lifted. “Sage has previously advised against making too many changes at once,” they said.
The advice highlights the deep consideration that went into the announcement on Wednesday that adults who lived alone would be allowed to form a “support bubble” with another household.
The move is the first phase in a three-part process suggested by Sage. If the subsequent phases are adopted, two households of any size will be allowed to meet up, with a third phase allowing multiple-person bubbles being allowed to link up with another household of any size.
Other configurations were discussed but were deemed “too complex to message”, risked people facing “irresolvable decision making” about who to pair up with, and had the potential to leave those who were not in any bubbles feeling ostracised.
Further documents reveal how Sage made clear the absolute need to protect care homes, where an estimated 16,000 of the UK’s Covid-19 deaths have been recorded. On 16 April, the experts stressed that “care homes should be shielded as self-contained units” and that “all efforts should be made to prevent the virus entering such a setting in the first place”. A month later, Sage reiterated the need to minimise “and ideally completely avoid” staff working in different care homes, as this was known to spread infections.
Catherine Noakes, a professor of environmental engineering for buildings at the University of Leeds and chair of the Sage Environmental Working Group, which recommended the 2metre rule, said the guidance on physical distancing depended on the numbers of infections in the community.
The infection rate of about 1,000 is still considered reasonably high. “If you’re in a big theatre venue, someone in that space will have the virus. If you’re on the bus, one in 20 buses will have someone infected on it. At the end of the day it’s what risks society is willing to tolerate,” Noakes said.
She did not want to say whether was an appropriate moment to relax the 2-metre rule, but said it might be appropriate to have guidance depending on the context rather than a blanket rule. “People are very hung up on 2 metres,” she said. “It’s not as simple as just 2 metres. It depends on duration and activity.”
In addition to the Sage documents, officials released the first regional R values for the epidemic, where R is the average number of people an infected person passes the virus on to.
The R values for all regions of the country are hovering close to the critical threshold of 1, according to government estimates, suggesting the epidemic is in a slow but tentative decline.
The average R value for the UK, as a whole, remains at 0.7-0.9, with values ranging from 0.7-0.9 in the east of England to 0.8-1 in London, the Midlands and the north-west, with the highest value seen in the south-west at 0.8-1.1. The south-west currently has very low rates of infection, meaning the higher R value there is not necessarily a cause for concern.
Prof Matt Keeling, of the University of Warwick, said the values were all closer to 1 “than we would ideally like to see”. “This also means we haven’t got much wiggle room for additional relaxation of social distancing measures,” he said.