Joe Biden needs more than virtue to win. He will have to pick an exciting vice-president
On the slender shoulders of 77-year-old Joe Biden has fallen a heavy burden: responsibility for defeating Donald Trump and resetting America’s course. Whether the issue is racial injustice, the climate crisis, inequality, Middle East peace or democracy’s future, Biden alone stands between the US and four more years of divisive turmoil at home and dangerous confrontation abroad.
Will he win? He certainly wants to. After 36 years in the Senate and eight playing second fiddle to Barack Obama, Biden is the nearly man of US politics. It’s his last shot at the top spot. Yet his conventional centrist outlook, empathetic style and courteous, old-school mien recall a different age. Is he the man to lead the necessary, radical reordering of a post-Covid world in the teeth of Trump’s bottomless malignity?
Lockdown in a basement suited Biden. While Trump publicly flailed and failed, he kept his powder dry. Now his campaign is stepping out into the light. A pandemic recovery plan, police reform in the wake of George Floyd’s killing, and curbs on Facebook abuses are among recent initiatives. Like a man in a bar turning to confront a taunting bully, Biden – at last – is rolling up his sleeves.
Of all the decisions facing him between now and November, perhaps the most consequential is imminent – his pick for vice-president, which he has promised by August. Biden indicated last year that, should he win, he would only serve one term. Running again as an octogenarian was more or less ruled out, assuming he could count on a trusted successor. That makes his choice of vice president, or veep, vastly more important than usual. His pick can expect a ready-made launchpad for their own 2024 presidential bid – and a reasonable chance of success.
Who will it be? Biden badly needs vigour and youthful energy, if only to rebut the “Sleepy Joe” label pinned on him by Trump. He needs to reconcile his moderate policy positions with the party’s left wing. He needs to widen his appeal. That’s why he has already pledged to pick a woman. And that’s why, following the Black Lives Matter protests, that woman may well be black.
Two white women led the pack until recently. But Senator Amy Klobuchar’s time as a career prosecutor in Minnesota, the state where Floyd was killed, may have dashed her chances. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, another defeated rival, is the darling of the liberal left. Yet polls suggest she puts off almost as many voters as she attracts.
Emboldened meanwhile by the spotlight on inequality, several black female hopefuls are knocking on Biden’s door. Some, like the California senator, Kamala Harris, are familiar figures from the primaries. Others, such as Keisha Lance Bottoms, mayor of Atlanta, won notice during the Floyd protests.
Other names mentioned include Val Demings, a congresswoman from Florida, Stacey Abrams, known for her ultimately unsuccessful 2018 Georgia governorship campaign, and Susan Rice, Obama’s former national security adviser. Pundits say Michelle Obama would be the most compelling choice of all – but she doesn’t want the job.
All the likely picks are younger than Biden. All would help get out the black vote in potentially decisive numbers, avoiding Hillary Clinton’s fate in 2016 when black turnout fell. Selecting either Harris or Demings would add geographical reach. Either Abrams or Bottoms could help Biden in Georgia and the South.
Biden may hope his choice of a female running mate will mitigate concerns about his past, allegedly inappropriate, behaviour towards women. Yet this worry seems overblown. Biden holds a massive 59%-35% poll lead over Trump among all women voters. The choice of a woman of colour would presumably also further strengthen his current 70%-23% advantage among non-whites.
More than anything, picking a black woman, with the possibility of her becoming the first female president, would be a historic move. It would inject excitement and moral authority into Biden’s campaign, especially among younger voters. It would be hailed as a major, practical advance for racial equality and a rebuff to the white supremacist Trump rump.
It would be a signal that America really is changing. And it would offer posthumous vindication to George Floyd and the many, many others who have suffered as he did. Biden is in an unusually strong position right now, leading nationally by about 10 points. That’s a bigger margin than Hillary Clinton achieved at any point in her campaign. To the consternation of Republicans, he is even gaining among noncollege-educated whites, a key segment of the fabled Trump “base” – though the president still leads among white males.
Trump’s inept handling of the pandemic has hurt him badly. His aggressive over-reaction to the Floyd protests, and attempts to link the Democrats to Antifa (anti-fascist) “terrorism”, backfired. His electoral ace – a strong economy – has been trumped by the virus amid signs of a second wave. Ironically, his efforts to polarise voters have succeeded. There are fewer undecideds and independents than ever.
Right now, a clear majority wants him gone.
And yet, and yet ... Biden beware. America has been here before. Clinton, too, led by a mile at this stage four years ago. On election eve, she remained ahead, but still lost the electoral college. While that could happen again, an even worse nightmare would be a repeat of the tied 2000 election, with Trump screaming fraud and disputing tallies, and a biased Supreme Court deciding the result.
Is this a real possibility? With Trump at the wheel, madly careening about like Toad of Toad Hall, fearing jail if he’s caught, you bet it is.
Emboldened by the spotlight on inequality, black female hopefuls are knocking on Biden's door