We need even tougher curbs to fight this new coronavirus strain
While the country has obsessed over the Christmas restrictions over the last few weeks the real story lay elsewhere, it transpires. A new strain of the coronavirus emerged a couple of months ago, probably somewhere in the northeast corner of Kent, but went unnoticed for weeks. New viruses emerge all the time, but they usually don’t cause problems. And it usually takes a long time for a new strain – starting from just a single case – to become visible to public health authorities.
In fact, we have one of the most comprehensive and sensitive molecular surveillance systems in the world and that allowed us to pick up this strain relatively quickly. However, the virus has also moved fast – very fast – and spread beyond Kent to Essex, London and elsewhere.
For its part, the government has also acted promptly – putting Kent into tier 3 after lockdown, despite the indignation of many of its MPs. Then it placed London and other parts of the south-east under similar restrictions as evidence emerged that the increase in cases might be due to a new strain.
One week later and our initial fears appear to be confirmed and the government has had to act again. Will it be enough? We will have to wait. But we should remember that this strain was increasing rapidly during the last lockdown. To prevent it spreading we will have to impose even tougher restrictions than that. It is likely that the virus has spread much more widely than the south-east, and so measures will have to be in place across large swathes of the UK to have the desired effect.
And then we have to look at the state of the epidemic as a whole. We are already at high incidence across much of the country with hospitals stretched and NHS staff under significant strain. Much of the populace – and our political leaders – are tired of these restrictions. There was an amazing degree of consensus during the first lockdown that although the measures were tough they were the right thing to do. That consensus has started to fray over the last few months. If our initial analyses
are proved correct, then the country faces a new and very serious threat from this novel virus. We will have to come together – once again – to beat it back, to buy us the time we need to roll out an effective vaccine.
John Edmunds, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.