The Guardian view on France’s far right: an advance thwarted
Wherever you look, it is said, nationalism in Europe is rising. In Spain and Italy, the far right is making gains. On Monday the nationalist Sweden Democrats plunged the country into a political crisis by driving through a noconfidence vote in the centre-left prime minister. Yet the first round results of regional elections on Sunday in France, a major test of public opinion before presidential polls next year, dashed Marine Le Pen’s hopes of turning the vote into a launchpad for her run at the top job.
Ms Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National did much worse than expected. Her party managed only a fifth of the vote nationally and topped the list in only one region, rather than the expected six. Unfortunately, Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche – her probable opponent in next year’s race to the Elysée Palace – did even worse, with only 11% of the national vote. The winners were the traditional parties, especially the centreright Les Républicains – which won 27% of the national vote.
One can read too much into these results. More than two-thirds of the electorate did not bother to vote. The regional assemblies have limited powers. Nationwide, leftwing parties gained a third of the national vote, but this fractious grouping appears unable to unify behind a single presidential candidate. Xavier Bertrand, a centreright presidential hopeful, won big in the Hauts-de-France region, but has no national power base.
This is not something that Mr Macron lacks. What he does not have is a grassroots political infrastructure for his party. This must be a concern, as it suggests that the French president might struggle to convert his relatively high popularity ratings, sustained despite Covid lockdowns, into votes. Only one in 30 potential French voters backed his party in 13 French regions.
Opinion polls indicate that Mr Macron will remain president, beating Ms Le Pen in a run-off next May. However, the president’s brand of liberal pro-Europeanism has been badly dented by his time in office. The gilets jaunes (yellow vest) movement, a revolt over his pension reforms, last year’s climate strikes and a climbdown over a security law have all taken the shine off his personal appeal. It looks unlikely that Mr Macron will retain control, even with allies, of France’s lower chamber, the national assembly, next June.
Political alliances are integral to France’s electoral system. Voters on both the left and the right often vote tactically to block the far right from winning power. In 2002, this stopped Jean-Marie Le Pen from taking the presidency, and a “front républicain” approach did the same in 2017 for Mr Macron. One can only hope that this trend continues, otherwise we risk trading Donald Trump in Washington for his female equivalent in Paris.
Nationalism, a legacy of the Enlightenment, is not going to wither away anytime soon. While it can bind people together to pursue a common good, it all too often curdles into a paranoid and intolerant politics. The French president knows this only too well. Laying a wreath at Napoleon’s tomb in May was a way to counter Ms Le Pen’s divisiveness. He will need more than gestures to win. Successive French presidents have failed to be re-elected because voters have been unhappy with their performance. Mr Macron will need to do much better this year to make sure history does not repeat itself.