Whatever happens next in Afghanistan, a humanitarian disaster is already in train

In recent days, a ferocious wave of fighting has enveloped Afghanistan as the Taliban take more and more territory from the Afghan government. The developing situation makes it extremely difficult to predict how the coming weeks and months will unfold in the country. One thing we do know, however, is that while most media commentary focuses on who has the upper hand militarily, the country inevitably faces a humanitarian catastrophe. Ordinary Afghans are confronted with a triple calamity: dire security, health and economic prospects. These cruel conditions predate the Trump administration’s Doha agreement with the Taliban in February 2020, which began the process of US military withdrawal; they also predate President Biden’s confirmation that full withdrawal will occur by 11 September this year.

Afghanistan entered 2021 already in dire straits, with more than 18 million Afghans – nearly half the population – in humanitarian need. Dwindling international aid, a violent conflict, weak governance and environmental challenges such as droughts have all contributed. The impact of the pandemic last year meant that in January 2021 Afghanistan had the world’s second-highest number of people facing emergency food insecurity.

For more than four decades Afghanistan has been one of the world’s most significant sources of refugees. Millions of Afghans live in Pakistan and Iran and estimates put the total number