The Guardian view on the Omicron surge: the public leads again
“Keep calm like Ma’am,” the Sun’s front page urged on Wednesday, favourably comparing the Queen’s decision to carry on with her Christmas plans to the actions of politicians who “lose their heads over Covid”. By Thursday morning, Her Majesty had cancelled her pre-Christmas lunch, following the biggest single-day rise in cases since the pandemic began. Many of her subjects have already made similar decisions; more will follow. Schools are closing early due to staff shortages. By late afternoon, another mammoth surge in recorded infections had been announced: 88,376 new cases. Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, warned MPs that the country could see record daily hospitalisations, above the previous peak of just over 4,500.
Prof Whitty has been blunt in telling people to prioritise the social contacts they really care about: “Don’t mix with people you don’t have to,” he said. In contrast, Boris Johnson would only tell people that if they wanted to go to an event it was sensible to get a test and “make sure that you’re being cautious”.
There is an eerily familiar feeling to this pattern: sharply rising cases, scientists sounding the alarm, the public acting accordingly, and Downing Street continuing to hedge its bets while other nations go further, with Nicola Sturgeon
asking Scots to stay at home “as much as is feasible”. The government appears to hope it can dodge responsibility for the economic costs of curbing Covid by muddling its messages, doing too little to protect an NHS which was already under severe strain while essentially pretending that the shuttered businesses and laid-off workers are not its problem.
The hospitality industry is still hoping for relief from the Treasury, but some venues have already closed at what is usually their busiest time of year and theatres have cancelled performances. Mr Johnson, who managed to keep a straight face while declaring that “I follow the rules”, doesn’t want to hamper people’s festivities, while claims of yet another lockdown party in Downing Street – with the prime minister himself reportedly in attendance – are emerging. Nor does he want to further anger backbenchers emboldened by the 100-strong rebellion over Covid passes, who have already turned on Prof Whitty.
The chief medical officer’s evidence to MPs on Thursday laid out the causes for his alarm. Even if Omicron is milder – which remains unclear – the admis
sions are likely to be concentrated over a short period of time, with problems compounded by “very significant” staff absences. “I am really cautious about making policy on the basis that everything might go right,” he warned.
The hope is that the doubling rate will slow as people take more precautions, buying time for boosters to take effect; and that the outbreak could ebb faster than previous strains did. Within a year and a half, new antivirals and vaccines able to cope with a wide range of strains will mean that most of the response to future variants will probably be medical, Prof Whitty suggested. Eighteen months, however, is a long way off. Most of the public would be satisfied to know what the next nine days hold in store.