Golden Globes 2023: who will win and who should win the film awards
After an almost two-year period of what felt like an unending cycle of embarrassing reveals and nervous repair work, the Golden Globes are finally, sort of, pretty much, maybe, kinda back.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been accused of a great many things – racism, bribery, giving The Tourist three nominations in 2010 – and after last year’s ceremony was both celebrity- and TV camera-free, the industry now awaits to see if Tuesday’s ceremony will be enough to return them to former glories.
But aside from whether anyone will, or should, watch what happens, which nominees will, or should, come away winners?
Best film (drama)
After the pandemic temporarily decimated the box office, the slow crawl back has led to a debate over exactly what awards bodies will be celebrating this season. Will there be more impetus than usual to reward the audience-alluring blockbusters as a way of recognising their importance in keeping so many people employed? While Baz Luhrmann’s flashy biopic hit Elvis might well have found its way into this category on any other year, it’s less guaranteed that Tom Cruise’s smash sequel Top Gun: Maverick would have been a contender, given its reliance on spectacle at the price of pretty much anything else. If voters were going for this commercial reasoning then it could be either the latter film or James Cameron’s juggernaut Avatar: The Way of Water, which continues to creep up the all-time box office list, that wins out (although Cruise’s public boycott of the Globes could play a part in his film being denied a win). But I’m betting the HFPA opts for Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical ode to the movies The Fabelmans which might have bombed on the big screen but its message of the power of film will send a similar message. Todd Field’s spiky character study Tár is sadly too knotty for HFPA voters to unravel.
Will win: The Fabelmans
Should win: Tár
Shoulda been nominated: Empire of Light
Best actress (drama)
While Tár as a whole might be, sadly, too chilly for some voters to fully embrace, they will probably find its star Cate Blanchett hard to resist, delivering an all-timer of a performance as a morally challenged composer losing her grip. Blanchett has a history of adoration from the Globes with three wins and another eight nominations (she even squeaked through for the thoroughly dreadful Where’d You Go, Bernadette) and with most agreeing that this is a career-best turn, it’s doubtful the HFPA won’t take the opportunity to add to her mantelpiece. Her closest competition would probably be Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans although heat around her has cooled as Blanchett has managed to scoop up the majority of critics circle prizes in recent months. Next in line would be Viola Davis for The Woman King, the kind of robust, mainstream crowdpleaser that the Globes are known for liking, while Ana de Armas for Blonde, and Olivia Colman for Empire of Light, might be viewed as the best things about the films they’re in but that won’t be enough.
Will win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Should win: Cate Blanchett, Tár Shoulda been nominated: Florence Pugh, The Wonder
Best actor (drama)
It’s been a notoriously weak year for male actors, the female category overstuffed with contenders, while the men have trailed far behind. There are, in my opinion, two ways for this category to go, given that the arguable best actor Oscar frontrunner is in the comedy and musical category. The first would be Brendan Fraser winning for Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, the kind of pre-packaged transformative awards performance that voters have always loved, but Fraser has spoken out against the HFPA and an alleged groping incident involving the former president. He’s a confirmed no-show at this year’s ceremony but even without that swirling, the film has been falling out of favour with many critics, who have rightfully criticised its creaky theatricality and awkward acting. The second, and more sturdy, scenario sees Austin Butler win for his role as Elvis, a film that has slowly become one of the surest things of this awards season. Voters love music biopics and lowerwattage competition from Hugh Jackman in The Son, Bill Nighy in Living and Jeremy Pope in The Inspection will only make Butler’s path to the stage even smoother.
Will win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Should win: Austin Butler, Elvis Shoulda been nominated: Jack Lowden, Benediction
Best film (comedy or musical)
There are reasons to think that Martin McDonagh’s friendship-turnedsour comedy The Banshees of Inisherin might come out on top here – it leads the field with the most nominations – the HFPA picked Three Billboards in the same year that the Academy didn’t – but I think the category, and the night itself, will be dominated by the multiverse caper Everything Everywhere All at Once. It might seem like a younger, edgier choice for the HFPA but beyond the buttplug jokes is a simple and, for many, rousing story about family. It also, like so many best comedy or musical winners, is essentially more of a drama, re-raising the debate about how seriously comedy is taken at the Globes. Elsewhere, Glass Onion will probably be seen as too much of a frippery, Babylon too divisive and Triangle of Sadness too odd.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Triangle of Sadness Shoulda been nominated: Bros
Best actress (comedy or musical)
While she might have fallen out of the best actress Oscar race, it’s pleasing to see Emma Thompson recognised here for her never-better turn as a woman exploring her sexuality in the wonderfully revealing Good Luck to You, Leo Grande. With a different campaign and in a different year, it might have been hers to lose. But the wins will probably continue for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Michelle Yeoh’s barnstorming central performance. There’s a great swell of support for her and the career that has preceded this and she’ll probably become only the second woman of Asian descent to win this category. Elsewhere a deserving Lesley Manville for her lovely Cinderella tale Mrs Harris Goes to Paris and the far less deserving pair of Anya Taylor-Joy for The Menu and Margot Robbie in Babylon will have to settle for the sidelines.
Will win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Shoulda been nominated: Amandla Stenberg, Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
Best actor (comedy or musical)
Quite possibly the easiest category of the night to predict has Colin Farrell rightfully sprinting away with this one for his exquisitely measured performance in The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s the comedy or musical category but it’s Farrell’s quieter, dramatic moments that should help seal the deal and it’ll play into HFPA’s desire for big stars winning big awards. His competition here is pretty much non-existent as he’s the only contender gaining genuine awards traction outside of the Globes, with Babylon’s Diego Calva, White Noise’s Adam Driver, The Menu’s Ralph Fiennes and Glass Onion’s Daniel Craig all unlikely to feature in the Oscar race.
Will win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Shoulda been nominated: Eichner, Bros
Best supporting actress Best supporting actor
Billy
There is a genuine route here for Angela Bassett to triumph for her scene-devouring turn in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever given the actor’s long, respected career and the film’s powerful off-screen emotional arc but it will most likely be a night for the category’s other elder stateswoman. Jamie Lee Curtis, one of the only nominees confirmed to be attending the ceremony, will probably follow her Everything Everywhere All at Once co-stars to the stage (even if her slot should have gone to Stephanie Hsu) after two wins in the past and another five nominations. Curtis was also memorably one of the only celebrities who took part in last year’s ceremony, via video, showing her support for the HFPA. The Banshees of Inisherin’s Kerry Condon is a lock for a best supporting actress nod at the Oscars but might have to sit this one out, deserving as she might be. The nomination for Triangle of Sadness breakout Dolly de Leon is a win in itself while Carey Mulligan’s nod for She Said feels like filler given how the film hasn’t performed elsewhere.
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Shoulda been nominated: Judy Davis, Nitram
Unusually, there are two nominations here for the same movie – both Brendan Gleeson (who is arguably a lead) and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin – and as such, may well cancel the other out. Brad Pitt’s inclusion for Babylon is mostly because, well, he’s Brad Pitt, while Eddie Redmayne is unlikely to leap ahead for The Good Nurse, a film with very little buzz. Ultimately, HFPA and academy voters love a strong narrative and there’s probably no stronger this year than Ke Huy Quan, the out-inlead frontrunner for Everything Everywhere All at Once. A successful child star in the 80s, he struggled to find work in the decades after, eventually retreating from the industry. But he was lured back for what ended up being his magnum opus, playing multiple roles with aplomb and his understandably emotional string of speeches during the awards circuit (he’s already won a ton) will probably continue this week.
Will win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Shoulda been nominated: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Best director
There was some mild pushback over the lack of diversity in this category (no Sarah Polley for Women Talking or Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King) but it’s a competitive year for the big guns and it’s likely that the biggest will win out. While James Cameron could rightfully be awarded for the sheer size of the undertaking behind Avatar: The Way of Water, Baz Luhrmann for the trademark dazzle of Elvis and the Daniels for the lower-budgeted ingenuity of their Marvel-esque Everything Everywhere All at Once (I think Martin McDonagh’s work on The Banshees of Inisherin will be deemed too minor in comparison), it looks like it will be Steven Spielberg’s year. The HFPA hasn’t handed him the best director award since Saving Private Ryan at 1999’s ceremony, despite five nods in the years since, and with his intimate movie-loving drama The Fabelmans also set to win best drama, I can see him getting further reward here for saluting the reason the Globes allegedly exist in the first place.
Will win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Should win: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Shoulda been nominated: Todd Field, Tár