Stats, scouting and smart coaching: how Toulouse exceed expectations
“Believe in yourselves. We are right. You are right. The coaching staff are right,” said an impassioned Damien Comolli. The former Liverpool and Tottenham director, now Toulouse president, was trying to inspire a dejected dressing room as the players slumped in their seats after a 6-1 rout by Marseille at the end of December.
Comolli’s faith has proven wellplaced. The team responded by going on a five-game unbeaten run that only ended this weekend, when they were narrowly defeated 2-1 by PSG in Paris. Toulouse, one of the more avant garde teams in Ligue 1, keep exceeding expectations.
Despite the city’s size, Toulouse is a smaller club than is often appreciated.
Only formed in 1970, they have never won a major trophy or reached a final. Their highest finish in Ligue 1 is third, last achieved in 2007, and they have largely bounced between the top two tiers of French football over the last four decades.
Hindered by rugby’s popularity in the region, their 33,000-seat ground has rarely been filled in recent times. They have had their bright spots – when André-Pierre Gignac scored 24 goals to help them finish fourth in 2009 and qualify for the Europa League, and when they started brightly under fiery coach Pascal Dupraz in 2016-17 – but avoiding relegation is usually their main concern.
Toulouse’s relegation to Ligue 2 in 2020 – their first spell out of the top flight in 17 years – felt inevitable, but difficult times brought innovation. Comolli joined as president after the previous owner Olivier Sadran was bought out by American investors RedBird Capital and Toulouse bounced back
quickly. They only missed out on an immediate return to the top flight after a defeat to Nantes in a playoff the next season, having been unfortunate to lose out to Clermont in the race to win the league, and they ran away with the second-tier title last term.
Comolli has revolutionised the club’s identity with the help of Philippe Montanier, the former Nottingham Forest coach, who has built an intense, positive and quick team. Téfécé may lack the individual quality of the elite sides in Ligue 1, but they are a nuisance to play against and few teams are as intelligent and organised. They are in form, too – after the defeat to Marseille in December, Montanier’s side went on a run of four wins and a draw before their trip to PSG on Saturday, which they lost 2-1.
The current Toulouse team and the side that was relegated in 2020 feel like they are from two different clubs. Only the left-back Issiaga Sylla, who recently left for Montpellier, was a significant part of both teams. Comolli and Redbird overhauled the club completely, adopting an analytical approach.“We are a club that makes all its decisions with the help of data and statistics,” Comolli explained last year. “Whether it’s in recruitment or our style of play, we analyse our opponents, our team, our players on an individual level. We analyse how we should approach a season.”
This approach is common in modern football, but Toulouse stick closer to the Moneyball idea than most. Comolli says the club use statistics to model questions such as: “How is the payroll distributed? How many players should be under contract? What is the optimal number of players? How do we distribute the money? On our transfer budget, how do we distribute it? To which players? What profiles? What positions? What do you need to stay in Ligue 1?” Montanier was also recruited via an analytical model. “We’ve shown him everything” says Comolli.
As a result, Toulouse’s recruitment is very eclectic and Montanier could easily field 11 different nationalities at once. Despite their small size, Toulouse scout in 70 leagues across the globe, including the fourth tier in some countries. Their approach led to the signing of Rhys Healey, an English striker from MK Dons. He scored 34 goals in 64 games in Ligue 2 before picking up a knee injury that has kept him out this season.
Scandinavian football, the J-League and the Dutch second tier are preferred hunting grounds for the club’s recruitment team. Rasmus Nicolaisen, the former Portsmouth defender, is now a reliable and efficient centreback for Toulouse. Striding Dutchman Stijn Spierings was plucked from Levski Sofia after just 19 games in Bulgaria and now patrols Ligue 1 midfields gracefully. Left-back Gabriel Suazo recently joined from Chilean heavyweights Colo-Colo.
The search for players looks inward, too. Anthony Rouault, a proactive and precise 21-year-old academy graduate, is one of the most promising young centre-backs in Ligue 1. His fellow former youth team graduate, the 20-year-old attacking midfielder Farès Chaïbi, has been linked with Arsenal. And Branco van den Boomen, their outstanding midfielder, is perhaps the greatest success of the club’s analytical philosophy.
The Dutchman, who joined Toulouse from De Graafschap in 2020 having played just 31 top-tier games, was the standout player in Ligue 2 last season, providing 21 assists and 12 goals. One of Europe’s best set-piece takers, Van den Boomen whipped in his latest free kick to open the scoring against PSG at the weekend. Van den Boomen’s vision and passing from his quarterback role are crucial in driving Toulouse forward. His contract is up soon and bigger clubs are circling.
Attractive, dynamic football aided by local talent has helped win back fans, but so has the club’s new attitude. “When I arrived, I realised there was a complete break between the city and the club,” said Comolli. “We had to reconnect people with the team. We had to win back our public but also try to win over new fans.” It has worked. Gates have increased by more than 50% since their relegation and the club’s boisterous hardcore support has grown too, making Toulouse games some of the most vibrant in Ligue 1 this season.
As Comolli addressed the players after the Marseille game, their situation was becoming bleak. Despite repeatedly impressing, their points haul did not match their performances. But the club kept faith with Montanier, their recruitment and ideology, and they now sit comfortably mid-table. It’s proven to be the right decision.
Talking points
• Nice’s rejuvenation under Didier Digard, the former Middlesbrough midfielder, continued this weekend with a ruthless 3-1 win at second-placed Marseille.
Dimitri Payet’s rare start lasted just 45 minutes as he and underwhelming new signing Vitinha, whose €30m fee is a huge outlay for Marseille, were withdrawn at the break. Nice – who were helped by an industrious debut from striker Terem Moffi, goals from Gaëtan Laborde and Sofiane Diop, plus a superb whipped effort from substitute Billal Brahimi – could still fulfil their potential this season after a chaotic start.
• Lille’s 3-1 win at Rennes was the other standout result of the weekend. Lille’s league position had been a concern, with coach Paulo Fonseca’s job reportedly under threat last month after draws with Reims, Brest and Clermont, but their performances have often been strong and their points haul remains solid. Late goals from Rémy Cabella and André Gomes secured the win, which takes them up to sixth in the table, just two points points behind their hosts and still in contention for a Europa League spot. Fonseca, it seems, may just be getting started.
• This is an article from Get French Football News• Follow Adam White and GFFN on Twitter