Sturgeon exit may delay new Scotland independence vote by five years
Senior figures in the Scottish National party believe Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation could delay their effort to stage another independence referendum by at least five years.
The party’s national executive committee confirmed on Thursday evening that Sturgeon’s plan – to stage a special conference on her proposals to use the next election as a single-issue “de facto referendum” on independence – had been scrapped.
The committee, which met online, also said that nominations for the leadership contest, which it revealed had opened at midnight on Wednesday, would close at noon on 24 February.
The vote among the SNP’s 100,000plus membership will open at noon on Monday 13 March and close at noon 14 days later, on 27 March.
The committee said the special conference had been “postponed” but it remains far from clear whether the next SNP leader and first minister will adopt Sturgeon’s risky argument that a general or Holyrood election could serve as a proxy referendum.
Angus Robertson, the party’s former Westminster leader and current bookmakers’ favourite, is widely expected to be among the first to declare his candidacy on Friday, with Humza Yousaf, the health secretary, Kate Forbes, the finance secretary – currently on maternity leave – and Ash Regan, a former minister, all tipped to join the race.
John Swinney, Sturgeon’s experienced and widely respected deputy, who was SNP leader 20 years ago, confirmed on Thursday night that he will not contest the election.
The party’s executive meeting was hurriedly convened after Sturgeon stunned the political world and many voters by unexpectedly revealing on Wednesday morning she had decided to quit as party leader – a step many had expected in 2025 or 2026 at the earliest.
In a long reflective statement at her official residence in Edinburgh, Sturgeon
said the relentless pressures of being first minister had taken an emotional and psychological toll. Aged 52, and after 25 years in frontline politics, she wanted a different career and privacy.
“The nature and form of modern political discourse means there is a much greater intensity – dare I say it, brutality – to life as a politician than in years gone by,” she said. “All in all, it takes its toll on you and on those around you.”
MPs and MSPs from across the party, including potential leadership candidates, said on Thursday the conference should be dropped or postponed to allow the next leader to decide their own independence strategy.
While many SNP members support Sturgeon’s proposal – introduced as her plan B after the UK supreme court ruled out allowing Holyrood to stage a referendum without Westminster’s approval – it is widely disliked by non-SNP voters and by SNP MPs.
With support for independence hovering at about 45% and rarely rising above 50%, SNP parliamentarians fear a single-issue election campaign will alienate voters much more worried about the cost of living or the NHS, and
could cost SNP MPs their seats.
Speaking privately, senior sources acknowledged that with the next general election due in 2024 and a Holyrood election in 2026, it would be unrealistic to propose staging a second referendum until after those elections were fought or without a substantial, consistent majority in favour of independence.
One source said delaying a fresh referendum would leave the next leader with the challenge of how they could offer independence to voters without promising a referendum. But the first task was to focus on securing and improving the SNP’s shaky domestic policy record, they said.
Another said: “The special conference has to be paused until a new leader is elected, and the focus needs to move away from the process around a referendum to sustaining popular support for independence.”
One cautioned, however, that SNP members could rebel against suggestions of a long delay to a second referendum, and could force leadership candidates to embrace a quicker timetable.
A supporter of Sturgeon’s call for a single-issue election campaign rejected suggestions the referendum could be delayed until later in the decade. He said Westminster’s repeated refusal to allow a referendum meant the SNP had to force the issue at an election.
“If you face a democratic roadblock you have to overcome it,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Talking about process for five years will be utterly pointless. We want a leader who will communicate their vision for independence and excite people.”
Stewart McDonald, until recently the SNP’s defence spokesperson at Westminster, said postponing the de facto referendum debate was essential.
The key challenge for the next leader, McDonald said, was “how do we get ourselves into a position where we get sustained majority support for independence and get ourselves to the promised land of a referendum we can win”.
Earlier on Thursday, Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, said the special conference should be pushed back to give the new leader time to set out their intentions. “It’s sensible that we do hit the pause button on that conference and allow the new leader the opportunity to set out their vision,” he told Sky News.
That proposal was supported by Michael Russell, the party’s president, who told BBC Scotland on Thursday morning: “There is a question to be asked as to whether that should be postponed whilst the leader comes into place.”
Russell, one of the SNP’s most senior figures, said Sturgeon had touched on that prospect in her speech on Wednesday. Although he supported Sturgeon’s stance on how to fight the next general election, he said: “I think it’s a matter that needs to be discussed.”
Richard Thomson, an MP from the north-east of Scotland, once the SNP’s heartland, said he had no fears about using an election as a proxy referendum but said that was much less satisfactory than a legally constituted referendum.
“I think a referendum is still the best way, the democratic way, the way that people in Scotland have expressed a preference to go,” he said.
“Whatever route you take, you want to be in a position where you’re not just going to squeak it, but you’re actually going to win it and win it convincingly, such that everybody can accept the result.”