Peter Bradshaw’s Bafta predictions: who will win – and who should?

Best film

Will winTárShould win TárShoulda been a contenderAftersun

Best director

Will win Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of InisherinShould win Park Chan-wook, Decision to LeaveShoulda been a contender Chinonye Chukwu, Till

Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer

Will win Charlotte Wells, AftersunShould win Charlotte Wells, AftersunShoulda been a contender Ruth Paxton, A Banquet

Best British film

Will winLivingShould win LivingShoulda been a contender Emily

Best film not in the English language

Will winAll Quiet on the Western FrontShould winThe Quiet GirlShoulda been a contender The Innocents

Best documentary

Will winFire of LoveShould winMoonage DaydreamShoulda been a contenderThree Minutes: A Lengthening

Best animated film

Will winGuillermo Del Toro’s PinocchioShould winMarcel the Shell with Shoes onShoulda been a contenderApollo

10 1/2

Best original screenplay

Will win Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at OnceShould win Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of InisherinShoulda been a contender Owen Kline, Funny Pages

Best adapted screenplay

Will win Edward Berger, Ian Stokell,

Lesley Paterson, All Quiet on the Western FrontShould win Kazuo Ishiguro, LivingShoulda been a contender Sjón and Robert Eggers, The Northman

Best actor

Will win Austin Butler, ElvisShould win Bill Nighy, LivingShoulda been a contender Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Best actress

Will win Cate Blanchett, TárShould win Cate Blanchett, TárShoulda been a contender Tang Wei, Decision to Leave

Best supporting actor

Will win Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of InisherinShould win Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of InisherinShoulda been a contender Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Best supporting actress

Will win Kerry Condon, The Banshees of InisherinShould win Kerry Condon, The Banshees of InisherinShoulda been a contender Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best music

Will win Carter Burwell, The Banshees of InisherinShould win Carter Burwell, The Banshees of InisherinShoulda been a contender John Williams, The Fabelmans

Best cinematography

Will win Roger Deakins, Empire of LightShould win Roger Deakins, Empire of LightShoulda been a contender Kate McCullough, The Quiet Girl

The Baftas ceremony is on Sunday 19 February and will be broadcast on BBC One and iPlayer.

Best supporting actor? … Brendan Gleeson (right) with Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin. Photograph: Landmark Media/Alamy

Best actress? … Cate Blanchett in Tár. Photograph: TCD/Alamy