Indian anger and Chinese indifference quash hopes of border resolution
India’s defence minister has accused China of border aggressions that have “eroded the entire basis” of their relationship, as negotiations over the line of actual control (LAC) remain deadlocked.
On Thursday, China’s defence minister, Li Shangfu, landed in Delhi for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. It is the first visit to India by a Chinese minister since 2020, when 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died in clashes along the Himalayan border in Ladakh and the two sides came the closest to war for almost 70 years.
Since then, according to Indian former army officers and defence experts, the situation along the 2,100-mile (3,500km) disputed LAC, remains on a knife-edge. It continues to be militarised on both sides, with 18 rounds of military talks having failed to de-escalate the tension, and many still fear the possibility of large-scale conflict.
India’s defence minister, Rajnath Singh, told Li during the talks on Thursday that the deployment of large numbers of Chinese troops and the “violation of existing agreements has eroded the entire basis of bilateral relations”. Li, however, called the situation “generally stable” and sought to distance bilateral relations from the border dispute.
Among both India and China watchers, there is not much optimism that Li’s visit will do anything to resolve the tensions. Some reports estimate that India has lost 40% of patrolling points in the region of Ladakh to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The Indian government has denied any loss of territory.
“There is a huge discrepancy in the narrative of both sides,” said Pravin Sawhney, an Indian army veteran and author of The Last War: How AI
Will Shape India’s Final Showdown with China. “There cannot be rapprochement between the two sides because it is a fact that the Chinese are sitting on Indian territory.”
The SCO meeting is taking place amid growing concern in China over India’s relationship with the US and a converging of their strategic interests when it comes to China. According to a report in March, India was able to ward off a potential Chinese military border incursion as a result of real-time intelligence and satellite imagery provided by the US about Chinese border positions. It was said to have enabled
India to “catch Chinese armed forces off guard” and reportedly enraged Beijing.
Border provocations from China have continued despite strong condemnation from India. In December last year, more than 20 Indian soldiers were injured in a clash with Chinese troops in the eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, in what India described as a Chinese attempt to “transgress the border”.
In March, China announced it was “renaming” 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh that it claims as part of Tibet. India’s home minister visited the border region that same week, stating that “times when anyone could encroach on Indian land have passed”. Beijing hit back, calling the visit a violation of its territorial sovereignty.
While there has been disengagement in some areas, Indian army officers and defence experts said about 1,500 sq km in Ladakh taken over by the PLA in 2020 remained under Chinese control. Two main areas of contention in Ladakh are Demchok and Depsang, which were previously patrolled by Indian troops but are now occupied by PLA soldiers.
Deependra Singh Hooda, the Indian army’s former chief of the Northern Command, described the situation there as tense.
“Depsang and Demchok areas are tactically important for India; but after so many rounds of talks there is no move forward and there does not seem any inclination from the Chinese side to resolve it quickly,” he said.
“The Chinese are preventing the Indian soldiers access to a large number of patrolling points,” Hooda said. “By sitting in this area, China is denying India access to a fairly large area.”
People living near the border in Ladakh allege that in the disengagement negotiations, New Delhi has ceded land to Beijing by agreeing to the creation of buffer zones – where neither side can patrol – in land that was previously claimed by India, specifically in the disputed Pangong Tso and Chushul areas.
“These buffer zones have been
created exclusively in the Indian territory ,” said Konchok Stanzin, a local councillor. “Chinese troops are still patrolling up to their claim line.”
Even officers who have been part of the military negotiations allege there is an intransigence on the Chinese side to defuse the situation. In the latest round of military talks this week before the SCO summit, “no mutually acceptable solution could be reached”, according to the Indian side.
“The PLA officers are generally curt to us during these meetings,” an Indian army officer, who has been part of several negotiations, said on condition of anonymity. “These meetings turn frustrating for us as the Chinese officers speak mostly Mandarin, which we cannot understand. They remain very economical with English.”
The tensions are most visible in the frenzied infrastructure race along the border. China has been building new highways, railway lines, bridges, air strips and sophisticated military bases, modern housing and 5G towers, while India – which historically avoided developing areas near the Chinese border in order to prevent any provocation – has been left behind, with many of its border areas still impoverished.
While India might have passed
China in population size, it is nowhere close in terms of its economy and military spending. In 2022, China spent $230bn (£184bn) on the defence budget; three times more than India.
“China has used infrastructure development as an excuse to escalate conflict and make incursions into Indian land,” said Maj Gen Amrit Pal Singh, the retired former head of army operational logistics for Ladakh. “In this kind of situation we have to react so that they cannot take any piece of our land. So India has doubled its focus on infrastructure near the border with China.”
In January, Rajnath inaugurated 27 infrastructure projects aimed at strengthening the border infrastructure, and India is speeding up the construction of 37,500 miles of roads, 350 miles of bridges, 19 airfields and a few tunnels near, or leading to, the border. It is also strengthening aerial connectivity, with at least four new air strips and about 40 helipads being built in Ladakh.
The scale and speed of this infrastructure push can be seen in an ambitious 8-mile tunnel being built in the Himalayan range, at an altitude of about 3,000 metres, to provide all-weather connectivity to Ladakh. Even as temperatures have dropped in winter, hundreds of workers and engineers have been instructed to work day and night to complete the $1.4bn Zojila tunnel.
“We are building this tunnel as swiftly as possible, keeping in mind that this is important for the defence of our country as there is a looming threat on the border from China,” said Harpal Singh, the head of the project.
Hooda was among those who believed the border situation was nowhere near being resolved. “Both sides are looking at each other with a great deal of suspicion,” he said.
“There is greater aggressiveness in patrolling. Physical clashes are taking place, soldiers are getting injured though no shots are being fired. These local incidents could spiral out of control; that is the big worry.”