As a new variant emerges, is Covid coming back to the UK?
The vaccine campaign against Covid-19 has just been brought forward by a month in the face of changes in the disease’s behaviour. The decision was made as the UK heads into autumn and has raised concerns that the nation faces a new wave of a disease that triggered a national lockdown three years ago. Here we look at the issues involved and scientists’ responses to the threats that lie ahead. 1 Are cases on the rise?
Scientists say that the daily number of new positive tests and the proportion of tests coming back positive have been increasing since the end of June. In addition to waning immunity to Covid-19, poor summer weather and the screening of blockbuster films such as Barbie and Oppenheimer may have caused increased indoor mixing, setting off rises in infections. 2 Will it get worse as winter approaches?
As weather worsens and days get shorter, that social mixing will intensify and numbers of cases are likely to continue to rise, although scientists also point out that current levels are still very low compared with case numbers last year. Nor has Covid-19 become a seasonal disease as expected. “It was thought that Covid-19 would end up being a seasonal illness like flu but this has not yet happened,” added Professor Adam Finn, of Bristol University. “The virus is still evolving quickly and new waves are appearing throughout the year.” 3 What’s happening in hospitals?
New hospital admissions and numbers of beds occupied by Covid patients have also been rising, but again doctors stress they are increasing slowly from a very low baseline. 4 How dangerous is the latest variant?
The new variant, BA.2.86, is characterised by a large number of mutations, many of which might be expected to help the virus evade existing immune responses. “However, our
genomic surveillance suggests that BA.2.86 is still at low prevalence, and although this strain has been identified in a number of different countries, it is not yet clear whether it is replacing existing strains in any of these settings,” said Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. 5 How do I get a test these days?
Covid tests are no longer available free of charge. Lateral flow tests can be purchased for a couple of pounds from pharmacies, while PCR tests – which give a more definitive indication of a person’s infection status – cost about £50. 6 Can I get a vaccine?
From 11 September, the vaccine will be offered to residents in care homes; all adults aged 65 years and over; people in clinical risk groups; and frontline health and social care workers. Those outside these groups will not be given a jab and – unlike those seeking immunisation against flu – will not be able to buy one. The government has said recently that in future it will not oppose the sale of Covid vaccines to those who want to buy one. However, manufacturers have yet to offer their products for sale in the UK. 7 Has the Covid-19 vaccine been tweaked?
An updated version of the vaccine that targets two coronavirus variants has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. This will be available to those getting the vaccine from 11 September and targets the original virus strain that appeared in 2020 as well one of the more recent Omicron variants. A new vaccine specifically tailored to target another Omicron variant will become available by the end of the year. 8 Why don’t they create a combined Covid-flu vaccine?
Scientists are working on creating such a joint vaccine. In the meantime, doctors have urged patients to try to arrange to have the two separate vaccines at the same time. “It is easier for patients to have both vaccines
at the same time at only one visit: one in each arm,” said epidemiologist Professor Keith Neal at Nottingham University. In the longer term, scientists anticipate that a single vaccine will eventually be developed to protect against Covid and flu and also RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which also causes illness in winter. 9 Do we know enough about how widespread Covid is?
It is not clear how prevalent Covid has become in the UK. Detailed tracking of the disease has been cut back. “In a sense that is a pity but, on the other hand, we need to be clear about our priorities,” added Finn. “The disease is not the threat it was three years ago and we need to put our resources into the really pressing medical problems that we are facing.”
10 What’s the situation like elsewhere in the world?
The global picture of Covid’s spread is extremely mixed. In developing nations, the disease spread through populations who were not provided with vaccines. By contrast, in countries such as the US, the vaccine take-up rate has been striking and there continues to be strong pressure for all ages to be immunised, including children who rarely suffer ill effects from Covid infections.
Uptake rates remain low among young people, however.