Has the US learned to cope with extreme heat? Next summer could be even hotter

It’s been a record-breaking summer of heatwaves across large parts of the US and the world, and trying to stay cool and safe has been an unprecedented challenge.

There has been a rise in heat-related fatalities; companies and organizations have been under greater pressures to protect workers; and officials from small towns to the White House have been scrambling to respond.

All of this could be the start of the “new normal”.

Climate scientists say the heat and other extreme weather is in line with three decades of scientific prediction amid humanity’s relentless carbon emissions. It might, in fact, be the tip of the iceberg compared with what is to come.

As the US recognizes Labor Day, an unofficial marker of the end of summer, we look at what we might be facing next year from the perspective of climate science, worker protections and what cities are doing to respond.

Will next summer be hotter or cooler?

If you think this year has been too hot, then 2024 might be an unpleasant experience. Climate scientists have warned that the trends are pointing to next year being the hottest ever recorded.

The reason for such predictions lies in the El Niño event that is currently gathering strength and is likely to help global temperatures hit record levels in the coming five years.

El Niño, a natural, periodic climate phenomenon where parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean heat up and cause global temperatures to rise, started to form earlier this year and is expected to peak in the winter. This means that the strongest period of El Niño will likely occur next year, further fueling the heat provoked by human-caused climate change.

Although there is about a 50% chance of this year being the hottest ever recorded, scientists have said, there is a far greater chance of that record being set in 2024. Over the next five years, there is a 98% chance one of those years will be the hottest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

“We anticipate that 2024 is going to be an even warmer year because we’re going to be starting off with that El Niño event,” said Gavin Schmidt, a Nasa climate scientist. “That will peak towards the end of this year, and how big that is is going to have a big impact on the following year’s statistics.”

Next year will probably not only see record or near-record heat, it will also likely see a surge in flooding events. The influence of El Niño will cause the US to experience three times the number of “nuisance” flooding events next year than it did in 2000, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

How have US cities responded?

At the start of this summer, a handful of cities – Los Angeles, Miami and Phoenix – had dedicated chief heat