In Poland, we’ve gone from semi-dictatorship to democracy in days. Isn’t that great?
Ten days ago, my friends and I watched the performance of a strange play on Polish public television. Billed as a pre-election debate (indeed, the only pre-election TV debate), it featured people dressed up like journalists, acting the parts of journalists who asked the candidates such Orwellian questions as – I am paraphrasing – “Do you want Poland to be rich and secure, like it is now, or would you rather that it was poor?”
It was at this moment that we realised just how far Poland had strayed from even a semblance of democratic standards. Eight years ago, when PiS – the Law and Justice party – came to power for the first of two terms in government, nobody would have thought of hijacking public television for the propaganda aims of one party. This time, nobody was remotely surprised. The national broadcaster TVP was fully captured by PiS.
Recalling how recent this TV debate was makes all the more extraordinary the journey we have taken in just a few days. From an oligarchic system, where everything depended on one party – or even one man, Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS leader – we are back in the land of glorious multipartyism, where the new coalition contains three different parties, each with different programmes and goals.
But here are a few points you should know about the outcome of the Polish elections.
1. Putin won’t be happy
I can’t say that Kaczyński’s party was controlled by Russia. The support it has shown Ukraine since Russia’s fullscale invasion began, in February 2022, proves that this was not the case. But many of its actions bore the hallmarks of having come from a handbook written by Vladimir Putin.
A few weeks before the elections, for instance, my friends and I were making bets on how much we would be paying for petrol when the election campaign ended. It had been obvious to everyone, including PiS supporters, that the prices at the pumps during the campaign bore no relation to reality. Orlen, the state-owned energy company and a key player in the Polish petrol market, whose managers spoke of their support for the ruling party, cut its prices, and was widely suspected of doing so to create the impression of an economy in good shape.
The head of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński – also appointed by the ruling party – was able to announce that the inflation rate had fallen to 8.2%, very low compared with the 18.4% rate it reached in February.
But was that due to his prudent economic management? Not so much. Rather, it was the cheap fuel and a few other gimmicks. All hands on deck to help the party romp home to victory once again. I am sure Putin loves central planning, price-fixing and statecontrolled TV as much as the PiS leader Kaczyński.
2.Turnout
“Pack your litterboxes, fat cats!”. With those words, Szymon Hołownia, the leader of Third Way, gave us probably the best quote of the whole campaign. A week before the elections, about 20% of Poles didn’t know who they should vote for. Hołownia’s performance during that bizarre TV debate most probably made them vote for him. Third Way is now likely to be a partner in the next Polish government.
We didn’t know how many people would vote until the last moment. But from the very early hours, we heard a stories about long lines at the polling stations. There was another story about a Polish student in Japan who travelled 1,500km from Okinawa, where he studies, to Tokyo, so he could cast his overseas vote. Hour after hour, we saw more and more people wanting their vote to count.
3. Confederation, our biggest fear, was the dog that didn’t bark
Who are Confederation, the party that was tipped to become kingmaker in at tight election outcome? Basically, they are a bunch of far-right political misfits, ranging from opponents of 5G, anti-vaxxers and reptilian conspiracy fans to self-confessed allies of Putin. Luckily, the latter are a rare breed in Poland. Suffice it to say that Confederation’s founder, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, is a far-right politician known for questioning women’s role in society, saying that Hitler “probably did not know” the extermination of Jews was happening and for supporting the Kremlin on every possible occasion.
For the duration of the campaign, Mikke was asked to hide, and the party leaders Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak took the lead. With the new blood in charge, the party
switched from talking about conspiracies to unrealistic but smart-sounding solutions for entrepreneurs and taxpayers. It went scarily well – there was a moment when Confederation had 15% support in the polls. Luckily, the party was like a runner who peaked before the Olympics. Confederation won slightly above 7% of the vote, which gives it 18 seats in the new parliament.
4. There will be no Polexit
PiS isn’t a party of dialogue with anyone. Especially not anyone in the EU. Its supporters love the Eurosceptic rhetoric that depicts Brussels as the enemy of Poland: a superpower that deprives us of our identity and independence (you in the UK know that tune, huh?). The outgoing governing party was against refugees being relocated to Poland, another anti- EU stance that helped it to power for two consecutive terms.
At some point, Brussels grew tired of Poland’s democratic backsliding and decided to make €36bn in EU Covid recovery support, earmarked for Poland, conditional on Warsaw’s observance of the rule of law.
PiS tried to convince voters that the EU was aggressively trying to meddle in our internal politics. For many observers it was obvious that in the long term this was tantamount to the beginnings of Polexit: if not quitting the EU, at least wrecking it from inside, something Putin would have been very happy about.
Expect a big U-turn. Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Coalition, the ex-president of the European Council, will want a strong Poland in the EU. Unblocking the Covid recovery funds is one of his main goals for the next four years. So we will not join you, dear Brits, outside the tent, after all.
A few days ago, we lived in semidictatorship. Today we are a vibrant democracy that knew how and when to protect itself from the populists and Putin’s puppets. Isn’t that great?
And the greatest thing, the one I am most proud of, is the turnout. It was 74.38%, an absolute record for Poland. This proves how important Poland is to Poles. How much we care. And how much we believe in democracy. Well done, dear Poles!
Witold Szabłowski is the author of How to Feed a Dictator. His book What’s Cooking in the Kremlin: A Modern History of Russia Through the Kitchen Door, translated by Antonia LloydJones, is published on 7 November