Everton have climbed up the table and the stats suggest they will go higher
Everton avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth last season, staying up after a 1-0 win over Bournemouth on the final day. Sean Dyche helped the club beat the drop and the hope in the summer was for a more settled campaign: one without a relegation battle that allowed Everton to consolidate their place in the Premier League before they move to their new stadium next year. They could not have asked for a worse start.
Everton kicked off the season with a five-game winless run, succumbing to defeats against Fulham, Aston Villa, Wolves and Arsenal. A surprise 3-1 win at Brentford in September offered a brief reprieve but their subsequent defeat to newly promoted Luton – still that club’s only win in the Premier League after 12 matches – suggested that Everton were in for another long season.
However, since that painful, worrying defeat at home to Luton, Everton have started to climb away from danger and up the table. Indeed, they have won three of their last five matches. Their 3-2 win at Crystal Palace at the weekend lifted the club eight points clear of the relegation zone. And, given the way the three promoted sides are playing, Everton fans are unlikely to witness another relegation dogfight this season.
There is an argument to be made that Everton should be even higher than 14th in the table. They have been unfortunate this season, with poor finishing the root cause of their sub-par start. It’s worth remembering that four of their six league defeats have been by a single goal – and they had more shots than their opponents in three of those four games. They have lost tight games and failed to score goals at the right times. Their goal difference is the same as Manchester United’s, yet Everton are 14th and United are sixth.
Everton have scored 14 goals in the league this season, the 12th best in
the division, but they have taken 167 shots, the 10th best in the league. Their tally of 57 shots on target is the ninth best in the division – as many as Manchester United, who are eight places above them. Everton do not have problems creating chances; their issue is putting them away. They have missed 22 big chances this season, the fifth most in the Premier League, and their shot conversion rate of 8.4% ranks just 13th.
They were particularly unfortunate or wasteful - depending on your view - at the start of the season. During their opening seven games, in which they only picked up four points, they missed more clear-cut chances than any other side in the league (18) and only scored with 5.6% of their shots, the worst conversion rate of all 20 Premier League clubs. They only scored six goals in those seven games, but that was not a reflection of how well they were playing. All they lacked was the finishing touch.
Misfortune in front of goal was themain reason behind their poor start. Everton’s tally of 14 goals is far lower than their expected goals of 20.8. Indeed, they have the largest gap between goals and expected goals of all the teams in the league this season. “You look at the games we have had so far, we have been unlucky,” said centreback Jarrad Branthwaite in September. He was right.
Now, though, fortune is beginning to shine on Everton. They are finding the back of the net while still remaining compact at the back in traditional Dyche fashion. They have no issues keeping opponents out, with Branthwaite among those impressing for Everton in defence. Everton have conceded the ninth fewest goals (17) in the league this season, three of which have been penalties, and they are only conceding 12.4 shots per game, the seventh lowest return.
Dyche made Burnley hard to score against and he is doing the same at Goodison. Everton rank top for tackles per game (20.5), while having the fourth lowest possession (39.2%). Their style is to remain compact before seeking to spring rapid counterattacks down the flanks; the majority of their attacking moves come either down the right (36%) or the left (39%).
Only Wolves (14) have attempted more counterattacks than Everton (13) in the Premier League this season and, while they are yet to score a goal from these efforts, it’s only a matter of time before they reap the rewards. Dyche has a clear plan in place: a 4-4-1-1 system with old-fashioned wingers out wide and a pair of hard-working central midfielders shielding the backline.
Everton’s results in the opening few weeks probably had supporters fretting about the prospect of another relegation battle, but there were reasons for optimism. Given the number of chances they were creating, things eventually had to take a turn for the better. That is exactly what has happened. After three wins in their last five games, Everton have pulled away from danger. Dyche has not changed his tactics; he was simply long overdue an uptick in form. Everton have been performing better than their league position suggests.
Premier League team of the week