Ecuador is copying El Salvador’s war on gangs – but it will only add to the spiral of violence
Awave of attacks carried out by criminal organisations last week in Ecuador – epitomised by gunmen storming a television station live on air – has brought international attention to a security crisis that has been building for years. Ecuador has become one of the most murderous countries in what is already the world’s most homicidal region. The murder rate in the South American country has risen from five per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017 to 46 per 100,000 in 2023.
States of emergency, which establish curfews and permit military action in prisons, have been frequent in Ecuador in recent years. Its president, Daniel Noboa, innovated last week with the unprecedented declaration of a state of “internal armed conflict”.By applying the laws of war to organised criminals as if they were terrorists or insurgents, the move may contravene international law, Human Rights Watch’s deputy Americas director, Juan Pappier, told the Washington Post. Commentators and critics have noted the lack of any clear exit strategy by the government.
So far, more than 1,100 people have been arrested under the state of emergency, and five alleged “terrorists” have been killed by security forces, according to government figures. The authorities are moving to retake control of the country’s prisons, which for a long time have been largely controlled by criminal organisations. In an interview on Friday, Noboa said a hardline crackdown is the only way to prevent Ecuador becoming a “narco-state”.
Noboa, who won a surprise victory in snap elections last year, is a political outsider with just 18 months remaining to govern before the next set of elections in 2025. He has every incentive to advance with rapid solutions, regardless of their sustainability. And Ecuadoreans across the political spectrum have been united by the existential threat of organised criminal organisations, so for now many appear to back his promise to wrest back control at any price.
Ecuador’s militarised crackdown could set a new precedent for a region where security concerns seem to increasingly overshadow commitments to democratic principles. Latin America’s political systems are in the midst of what the NGO Latinobarómetro has described as a “democratic recession”, as voters increasingly feel indifference to the type of regime that governs them, with less support for democracy and more attitudes favouring authoritarianism. Burgeoning security issues are a significant factor in Latin America’s growing disenchantment with democracy. Simply put, governments in the region have failed to mount an effective response to organised crime, which is ultimately responsible for much of Latin America’s murders.
Noboa’s approach in Ecuador appears partially inspired by the ironfisted crackdown carried out by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, against gangs in that country. The wildly popular leader’s heavy-handed and – perhaps – successful suppression of street gangs has made him a rock-star influencer among Latin American poli