Weight-loss drug use could boost GDP in US by 1%, says Goldman Sachs
The widespread use of powerful, relatively new weight-loss drugs in the United States could boost gross domestic product by 1% in the coming years as lower obesity-related health complications are likely to boost workplace efficiency, according to financial giant Goldman Sachs.
Some analysts have predicted the market for weight-loss drugs could reach $100bn a year by the end of the decade, with Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk and Mounjaro producer Eli Lilly leading the race.
The class of drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, are being keenly pursued by several companies and more could enter the market depending on clinical trials. The use of GLP-1s could increase by anywhere between 10 million to 70 million consumers by 2028, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.
“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” Goldman economists said in a note.
“Academic studies find that obese individuals are both less likely to work and less productive when they do.”
The brokerage estimated weightloss drugs could bolster US gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.4% in a scenario with 30 million users, and could rise to 1% with 60 million users.
The drugs are criticized by many in the body-positivity movement, and Goldman Sachs’s report is likely to stir reaction.
The current wave of healthcare innovation such as artificial intelligence (AI)-powered drug discovery coupled with GLP-1s could raise the level of US GDP by 1.3% in the coming years, equivalent to $360bn per year in current exchange rates, with potential for an increase ranging from 0.6% to 3.2%.
“Effects are likely to be larger in the US than in other countries, as health outcomes in other developed markets are generally better,” the brokerage added.
Meanwhile, weight-loss drugs are being researched to look at whether they could help conditions ranging from alcohol addiction to dementia.
Ozempic, a type 2 diabetes medication, and Wegovy, which is licensed for weight loss, contain the drug semaglutide, while a similar drug, liraglutide, is available for both purposes under different brand names.
These medications have become hugely popular, not least because they can help people lose more than 10% of their body weight. Researchers who hope the drugs could bring further benefits are setting up clinical trials.