US faces ‘increasingly fragile world order’ amid Russia and China threat
US intelligence agencies say the country faces an “increasingly fragile world order,” strained by great power competition, transnational challenges and regional conflicts, in a report released as agency leaders testified in the Senate.
“An ambitious but anxious China, a confrontational Russia, some regional powers, such as Iran, and more capable non-state actors are challenging longstanding rules of the international system as well as US primacy within it,” the agencies say in their 2024 Annual Threat Assessment.
The report largely focused on threats from China and Russia, the greatest rivals to the United States, more than two years after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, as well as noting the risks of broader conflict related to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza since the 7 October attacks.
China is providing economic and security assistance to Russia as it wages war in Ukraine, by supporting Russia’s industrial base, the report says. It also warns that China could use technology to try to influence this year’s US elections.
“[China] may attempt to influence the US elections in 2024 at some level because of its desire to sideline critics of China and magnify US societal divisions,” the report says.
The report also notes that trade between China and Russia has been increasing since the start of the Ukraine war, and that Chinese exports of goods with potential military use rose more than threefold since 2022.
Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, urged lawmakers to approve more military assistance for Ukraine. She said it was “hard to imagine how Ukraine” could hold territory it has recaptured from Russia without more assistance from Washington.
She said it is “absolutely critical” that Congress pass a bill that would provide $60bn in new military assistance for Kyiv. Republican House of Representatives
speaker Mike Johnson, an ally of Donald Trump, has so far refused to call a vote on the measure, which has passed the Democratic-run Senate.
On Sunday Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, said Donald Trump would “not give a penny” to Ukraine if he is re-elected, after he met with the former president in Florida.
According to Orbán, Trump has a “detailed plan” to end the Ukraine war.
CIA director William Burns told the Senate intelligence committee that US intelligence assessed that Vladimir Putin was not serious about negotiating an end to the conflict, despite economic consequences “fast making Russia the economic vassal to China.”Burns, like Haines, strongly urged continuing support for Ukraine both to bolster the government in Kyiv and send a message to China about aggression toward neighbors, such as Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
“It is our assessment that [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping was sobered, you know, by what happened … He didn’t expect that Ukraine would resist with the courage and tenacity the Ukrainians demonstrated,” Burns said.
Haines noted concerns that the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas could spread global insecurity. “The crisis in Gaza is a stark example of how regional developments have the potential of broader and even global implications,” Haines said.
She said attacks by Houthi militias on shipping and said the militant groups al-Qaida and IS “inspired by Hamas” have directed supporters to conduct attacks against Israeli and US interests.
After a protester interrupted the hearing with shouts about the need to protect civilians in Gaza, Burns was asked about children in the Palestinian enclave.
“The reality is that there are children who are starving. They’re malnourished as a result of the fact that humanitarian assistance can’t get to them. It’s very difficult to distribute humanitarian assistance effectively unless you have a ceasefire,” he said.
Emotions rose in the hearing as some senators discussed immigration across the US border with Mexico, which Trump has made a focus of his campaign to defeat Joe Biden in the November election.
FBI director Christopher Wray expressed concern about the “terrorism implications from potential targeting of vulnerabilities at the border,” noting rising threats from Americans inspired by Islamist groups and other foreign militants since Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October.