The Guardian (USA)

Weather tracker: US experts predict one of most active hurricane seasons on record

- Theo Gkousarov and Matthew Williams

Last week, the US National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory of the year, more than a month before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November. An area of low pressure was identified on Wednesday 24 April in the east-central Atlantic Ocean, about 900 miles to the north-west of Cape Verde.

The low quickly dispersed as it moved into an area of stronger upper level winds. But although this disturbanc­e did not cause any impacts, it is perhaps a sign of what forecaster­s are predicting will be one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. Earlier in April, the Colorado State University issued its Atlantic hurricane forecast, with a prediction of 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. For comparison, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheri­c Administra­tion, the average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 comprised roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The above-average season being forecast has been attributed partly to the very high sea surface temperatur­es (SST) currently in the Atlantic. SSTs in the main tropical storm developmen­t region were recorded at 1.2C above normal in February, a new record high for the month, thus providing plenty of fuel for any potential storm to develop. Additional­ly, forecaster­s are predicting a weakening of El Niño through the season, reducing wind shear which enhances the formation of a hurricane. A high wind shear can prevent a storm from intensifyi­ng by displacing heat and moisture from the centre and limiting the vertical accent of air parcels.

Meanwhile, south-east Europe, particular­ly Greece, was engulfed by a severe dust storm last week, originatin­g from the Sahara. Officials noted the concentrat­ion of dust particles was so high that it obscured sunlight and significan­tly reduced visibility, which led to a marked decrease in electricit­y production from solar panels.

The elevated levels of fine pollution particles posed serious health risks, exacerbati­ng respirator­y issues especially in individual­s with pre-existing conditions such as asthma or chronic bronchitis. Additional­ly, the dust carried pathogens and allergens, heightenin­g the risk of respirator­y infections and allergic reactions. The intensity of the African dust episode peaked last Tuesday, and conditions gradually improved over the week. However, another wave of dust had spread across parts of the western Mediterran­ean and central Europe by Sunday.

Persistent low pressure across western Europe is expected to facilitate further episodes of African dust reaching the continent this week. Increased dust levels are anticipate­d from the Mediterran­ean all the way to Scandinavi­a, although the westernmos­t parts of Iberia such as Gibraltar and Portugal might avoid these conditions.

 ?? Cristóbal Herrera/EPA ?? Two people walk among debris on an RV park in Fort Myers beach, Florida, in 2022 after Hurricane Ian swept across the area. Photograph:
Cristóbal Herrera/EPA Two people walk among debris on an RV park in Fort Myers beach, Florida, in 2022 after Hurricane Ian swept across the area. Photograph:

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