Feinberg Forecast

The lead actress in a drama category is a race between first-time nominees and Emmy veterans

UZO ADUBA In Treatment, HBO This versatile actress, just 40, has already won three Emmys in three different categories and could make it four in four if she is recognized for her portrayal of therapist Brooke Taylor in this HBO reboot. No other nominee shot more episodes this season (24), and none of their seasons finished rolling out more recently (June 28). But the series’ original star, Gabriel Byrne, never won.

OLIVIA COLMAN The Crown, Netflix Could Colman’s fourth nom be the charm? She was previously nominated for The Night Manager, Fleabag and her first season as Queen Elizabeth II on this acclaimed Netflix show. Her work on season four has earned her Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG Award noms. The series’ prior QEII, Claire Foy, won for the second of her two seasons, but Colman is also up against a co-star, Emma Corrin.

EMMA CORRIN The Crown, Netflix This year’s youngest nominee in the category, at 25, is also the odds-on favorite to become its second-youngest winner ever, behind only defending champ Zendaya, then 24. The newcomer’s portrayal of the tortured Princess Diana already has brought her Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards and a SAG Award nom and helped to propel the show’s fourth season to 24 total noms.

ELISABETH MOSS The Handmaid’s Tale, Hulu The Queen of Peak TV — she has starred on The West Wing, Mad Men, Top of the Lake and this Hulu hit, all before turning 40 — is hoping season four will bring her a second win in this category. Her biggest hurdle may be the so-so critical response to the season overall — it landed 21 noms but clocked in at just 70 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, 12 percentage points lower than the previous season.

MJ RODRIGUEZ Pose, FX The 30-year-old earned her first career nom for her portrayal of Blanca Rodriguez, a key player on the ballroom scene and in the AIDS ward, on the third and final season of FX’s landmark series. She’s also the first trans performer to earn a lead acting nom. Rodriguez was in fewer episodes this season than any of her fellow nominees, but Pose scored a perfect 100 percent on RT for its swan song.

JURNEE SMOLLETT Lovecraft Country, HBO This 34-year-old garnered Critics Choice noms 24 years apart — the first for her breakthrough film Eve’s Bayou and the second for this much-lauded HBO show. It’s never a good idea to bet against an HBO contender, but some TV Academy members are annoyed that they only learned after nomination voting ended that the show is actually finished after one season.