What Happened to Lady Gaga’s Oscar Nomination?

The House of Gucci star seemed well positioned to land a best actress nom, having been nominated by every major precursor, but the Academy’s membership is no longer similar to other groups.’ Plus, the movie itself was divisive

No Oscar nomination surprise on Feb. 8 sparked a bigger gasp in living rooms across Hollywood than the absence of House of Gucci’s Lady Gaga from the best actress field.

It’s not that Gaga is widely regarded as an actor’s actor — she’d given only one previous film performance of note, in A Star Is Born, for which she received a best actress Oscar nom two years ago, and she remains far better known for her music. But, in a competitive year for best actress, she looked better positioned than anyone; indeed, no leading lady except her had received noms from the SAG Awards (both as an individual and as a part of her film’s ensemble), Golden Globe Awards, Critics Choice Awards and BAFTA Awards — and she also won the prize of the snobbish New York Film Critics Circle.

So what happened? Oscar noms for acting are determined by the Academy’s actors branch. Given that most branch members are American, and most American actors belong to the nation’s largest actors union, the SAG Awards were long thought to offer a strong indication of how the Academy’s actors branch felt. But in recent years, SAG merged with AFTRA (the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists), resulting in an influx of everyone from TV meteorologists to radio talk-show hosts; more recently, the guild began admitting TikTokers too. Furthermore, the Academy has made a concerted effort to become a more international organization, with members abroad accounting for 12 percent in 2015 but 25 percent today. In other words, the people who pick the SAG Award noms — or almost any of the noms from other precursors, including the others landed by Gaga — and the Oscar noms are no longer very similar.

Additionally, to put it bluntly, many people hated House of Gucci. Moviegoers gave it a B+ CinemaScore, but the Academy’s taste aligns far more with the taste of critics, who rated it an abysmal 63 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, with some griping about its campiness and widely varying accents. Other than the SAG Awards, the only industry precursor that even acknowledged the film was the Costume Designers Guild, which helps to explain why it received only one Oscar nom (for best makeup/hairstyling). It’s hard to get an Oscar nom for a widely disliked film. If it happens, it happens once in a category, not twice. And this year, Kristen Stewart’s performance in Spencer — a film that critics liked but the guilds ignored — got that slot in the best actress race.