Breaking Down Oscar’s Best Picture Noms by Theme

THR looks back on the past five years of nominees for the top prize to dissect the cinematic motifs that the Academy will likely favor come Jan. 24

In the past five years, 43 features have earned Academy Award nominations for best picture, and with those dozens of films, thematic throughlines have emerged that offer a sense of what kinds of films voters favor for the top prize.

Historical films have earned the most nominations, exemplified by Green Book winning the award in 2018. While crowd-pleasing blockbusters have also earned best picture nods in recent years (contrary to the perennial criticism that the Oscars are out of touch with what the average filmgoer is consuming), none has won the category.

And while biopics often earn acting trophies for those films’ stars, they are not necessarily the sorts of films Oscar voters select as their favorite of the year.

In recent years, semi-autobiographical films by acclaimed directors have led the Oscar nominations — and this year is no exception, with features from auteurs like Steven Spielberg and James Gray as well as newcomers Elegance Bratton and

Charlotte Wells.

International films like RRR, Decision to Leave and Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (the latter directed by four-time Oscar winner Alejandro G. Iñárritu) could follow in the footsteps of non-Englishlanguage best picture winner Parasite and nominee Drive My Car.

Of course, there are always wild cards in the race that defy categorization. Here, THR looks at how this year’s contenders stack up against the Academy Awards’ recent history.

19% HISTORICAL MOVIES Past Nominees

Dunkirk (2017),

Green Book (2018, winner in 2019),

The Post (2017),

BlacKkKlansman (2018), Ford v Ferrari (2019), Jojo Rabbit (2019), 1917 (2019),

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2020)

This Year’s Contenders

Emancipation,

Till, The Woman King

Cinema is often a tool to expand on what history textbooks forget to mention.

This season, there are three historical films that center on Black lives: the Will Smithstarring Emancipation,

which sees the recent Oscar winner as an enslaved man who escapes and is hunted by his captors; the Danielle Deadwyler-led Till, which follows the aftermath of Emmett Till’s 1955 lynching; and The Woman King,

an exuberant war epic set in 19th century Africa and starring a predominantly Black female cast toplined by producer-star

Viola Davis.

7% COSTUME DRAMAS

Past Nominees

Phantom Thread (2017),

The Favourite (2018),

Little Women (2019) This Year’s Contenders

Lady Chatterley’s Lover, The Wonder

There’s a surprising lack of stoic period dramas among this year’s top contenders, although Netflix has a pair in Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre’s adaptation of D.H. Lawrence’s literary romance, which features Emma Corrin and Jack O’Connell as star-crossed lovers, and Sebastián Lelio’s 19th century-set

Irish drama starring Florence Pugh.

1% #METOO THEMES

Past Nominees

Promising Young Woman (2020)

This Year’s Contenders

She Said, Tár,

Women Talking

She Said and Women

Talking may have similar titles, but they take different approaches to the themes of the #MeToo movement. Todd Field’s Tár, in which Cate Blanchett’s maestro falls from grace following her questionable behavior and hubris, also touches on cancel culture in the wake of a collective reckoning regarding sexual harassment and abuse.

14% AMERICANA Past Nominees

Three Billboards Outside

Ebbing, Missouri (2017),

The Irishman

(2019), Nomadland

(2020, winner in 2021), Nightmare Alley (2021),

The Power of the Dog

(2021), West

Side Story (2021)

This Year’s Contenders Bones and All

Luca Guadagnino’s 1980s-set road movie sees two young cannibals falling in love as they traverse the Midwest — bringing a dark sensibility to Reaganera America.

12% PERSONAL NARRATIVES

Past Nominees

Lady Bird (2017),

Marriage Story (2019),

Minari (2020),

Belfast (2021),

Licorice Pizza (2021) This Year’s Contenders

Aftersun,

Armageddon Time,

The Fabelmans, The Inspection

This year’s autobiographical films see their directors taking a memoiristic approach to their cinematic storytelling, often reassessing their relationships with their parents.

12% POPCORN FLICKS

Past Nominees

Black Panther (2017), Get Out (2017), A Star Is Born (2018), Joker (2019), Dune (2021)

This Year’s Contenders

Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass

Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, Top Gun: Maverick

Both Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are among the highestgrossing films of the year, while James Cameron’s sequel to Avatar (still the highest-grossing film ever made) will likely top the box office upon its Dec. 16 theatrical release. With those three features and Glass Onion in this year’s mix, we may see four sequels snagging a best picture nomination — a nod that only seven movie sequels have received in Oscar’s entire history.

9% BIOPICS

Past Nominees

Darkest Hour (2017),

Bohemian Rhapsody (2018), Vice (2018),

King Richard (2021) This Year’s Contenders

Devotion, Elvis

Of the past four biopics to earn a best picture nom, three — Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody and King Richard — have earned their stars the Oscar for best actor. (Christian Bale also earned a nod for playing Dick Cheney in Vice.) That’s good news for Elvis star Austin Butler, who exceeded all expectations for his performance as the rock ’n’ roll icon. But it could also signal a potential first Oscar nomination for Devotion’s Jonathan Majors, who portrays the U.S. Navy’s first Black pilot, Jesse Brown, in Sony’s Korean War-set drama.

7% INTERNATIONAL FILMS

Past Nominees

Roma (2018), Parasite (2019, winner in 2020),

Drive My Car (2021)

This Year’s Contenders

Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

Only 13 non-Englishlanguage films have earned a best picture nomination, with Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite becoming the first to win the prize. With an increasingly expanding international voting body, the Academy may continue to show it’s not wary of subtitled movies — and the acclaimed RRR could become the first Indian film to earn a best picture nom.

5% CINEMA STORIES Past Nominees

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019),

Mank (2020)

This Year’s Contenders

Babylon, Empire of Light

Hollywood’s love letters to itself this year include Babylon, Damien Chazelle’s three-hour ode to the film industry’s transition from silent movies to talkies. On the more somber side is Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light, which takes place largely in a movie house in an English seaside town, and is lensed beautifully by Oscar-winning

DP Roger Deakins. (The editors elected to place The Fabelmans, which could arguably be counted here, in the personal-narrative group.)

14% WILD CARDS

Past Nominees

Call Me by Your Name (2017), The Shape of Water (2017, winner in 2018), The Father (2020), Sound of Metal (2020), CODA (2021, winner in 2022),

Don’t Look Up (2021) This Year’s Contenders

The Banshees of Inisherin, Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

Sometimes a best picture nominee just has the X-factor to capture voters’ attention, and the charming, darkly comic fable The Banshees of Inisherin

remains a leading contender. Guillermo del Toro’s stop-motion

Pinocchio could become the fourth animated film to land a best picture nom.

Triangle of Sadness’

scatological humor may face an uphill battle with squeamish voters, but it captures the anticapitalist zeitgeist — consider it The White Lotus on a boat.