The Hollywood Reporter (Weekly)
Oscar Oracles
Does a crafts guild or society award signal triumph at the Academy Awards? Here’s how those groups’ noms compare
73rd American Cinema Editors Eddie Awards
Unlike the Oscars, the ACE live-action feature competition has drama and comedy editing categories. The Oscar nominees in the ACE drama division include Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond for Elvis, Monika Willi for Tár and Eddie Hamilton for Top Gun: Maverick, while Oscar nominees Mikkel E.G. Nielsen for The Banshees of Inisherin and Paul Rogers for Everything Everywhere All at Once earned noms in the ACE comedy category. Oscar Oracles In four of the past 10 years, the winner of the Eddie for dramatic feature went on to win the Academy Award.
37th American Society of Cinematographers Awards
This year, Oscar nominees Mandy Walker (Elvis), Roger Deakins (Empire of Light) and Darius Khondji (Bardo) earned ASC noms alongside Greig Fraser (The Batman) and Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick). Oscar Oracles In seven of the past 10 years, the winner of the ASC feature battle won the cinematography Oscar.
27th Art Directors Guild Awards
In contrast to the Academy Awards, live-action features are divided into three categories at the ADG: period, fantasy and contemporary film. This year’s ADG noms include five Oscar nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, Elvis and
The Fabelmans in period and
Avatar: The Way of Water in fantasy. Oscar Oracles In the past 10 years, the winner of the period prize has won the production design Oscar five times; the fantasy winner three times; and the contemporary winner once.
21st Visual Effects Society Awards
The Way of Water leads the field with a record 14 nominations, including the top category of outstanding VFX in a photoreal feature. The sequel’s fellow Oscar nominees The Batman and Top Gun: Maverick also earned noms in the category. Oscar Oracles In four of the past 10 years, the winner of that prize has won the Oscar for visual effects.
25th Costume Designers Guild Awards
Here, the feature competition is divided by genre: Oscar nominees Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Everything Everywhere are nominated in the CDG’s scifi/fantasy category; Babylon, Elvis and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris are nominated in the period category. Oscar Oracles In the past decade, the Oscar for costume design went to the CDG winner in the period category four times and to the winner in the sci-fi/fantasy category twice.
10th Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards
The Batman and Elvis lead the feature competition with three MUAHS noms apiece: the former is in the running for contemporary make-up, contemporary hair styling and special make-up effects; the latter is a contender for period or character make-up, period or character hair styling and special makeup effects. Additionally, Wakanda Forever earned two noms and The Whale earned one. All four are nominated for the equivalent Oscar alongside All Quiet. Oscar Oracles Last year’s Oscar winner, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, didn’t win any MUAHS awards. Two years ago, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom took two MUAHS prizes en route to the Academy Award.
59th Cinema Audio Society Awards (sound mixing) and 70th Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards (sound editing) The CAS nominated All Quiet, The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick in its live-action feature competition — mirroring the Oscar nominees in sound. While Everything Everywhere isn’t nominated for an Oscar in sound, it leads the feature competition of the MPSE Golden Reel Awards with three noms. Of the sound Oscar nominees in the MPSE race, The Batman, Elvis and Maverick earned two noms apiece while All Quiet and The Way of Water picked up one each. Oscar Oracles It’s been two years since the Academy merged the sound editing and mixing categories, so it’s tricky to talk about precedents. In 2021, the recipient of the sound Oscar, Sound of Metal, won the CAS award for a live-action feature but failed to win a Golden Reel for sound editing. In 2022, Dune won the CAS award in the live-action feature category and one Golden Reel, for effects/Foley, en route to its Oscar win.