The January 6 hearings and the 2024 election

I continue to be surprised by the January 6 hearings. I watched the July 22 installment riveted to the television. I will say again, had the Republican caucus chosen as a body to participate, it could have reined in the sensational tone and pacing of the hearings.

Having Representatives Luria and Kinzinger lead last week’s hearings was a masterstroke. Luria is a retired Navy commander, and Kinzinger is an officer in the Air National Guard. They conducted the hearings much like a military administrative investigation, which in the Navy are called Judge Advocate General Manual (JAGMAN) investigations. JAGMAN investigations are conducted when there is an event that requires further inquiry to determine if participants acted within the line of duty, such as a motor vehicle accident involving a military vehicle.

The July 22 hearings covered President Trump’s actions as the mob invaded the Capitol. Luria and Kinzinger referred several times to the President’s “dereliction of duty” as he sat in his dining room watching television while members of Congress called and texted, begging him to send military help.

Any military officer has conducted a line of duty or administrative or JAGMAN investigation in their career. Laying out the timeline of the afternoon of January 6 after the President returned to the White House, with testimony from a former deputy national security advisor who is also a former Marine officer, was powerful to watch.

The hearing also showed video of Vice President Pence in his Capitol office, and his staff and Secret Service detail trying to evacuate him safely. It was impossible to forget that he was attempting to follow the Constitution in verifying the Electoral College results, in keeping with his oath of office, like the oath every member of the military takes, “to support and defend the Constitution of the United States, against all enemies, foreign and domestic…” Who could imagine that he would be defending the Constitution against so many domestic enemies?

As the hearings progress, it appears more and more likely that President Trump will face criminal charges. This will certainly hurt, if not derail, his 2024 presidential campaign bid. This is a good thing for the GOP.

To move forward, the Republican Party must move past Trump.

In an ideal world, Republicans would move all the way past Trump toward sane Republicans like Larry Hogan or Ben Sasse. But that isn’t going to happen in the span of two years.

Instead, we will get Trump Lite: Ron Desantis. He’s not my first choice, but he meets the criteria that many Republicans who didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 have for the 2024 candidate: He’s not Donald Trump. Given the likelihood that the Democratic nominee will be to the left of President Biden, this gives Desantis a good chance.

And I think it just about a given that Desantis’ running mate will be a woman. The only question is: Kristi Noem or Nikki Haley?

Noem, who is actively campaigning for national office now, offers a rodeo queen appeal (complete with magnificent hair extensions) and far-right populism in a narrative that makes her sound smarter than Sarah Palin, but only just.

I think the smart choice is Haley. She brings foreign affairs experience, and a slightly more moderate voice to the ticket. Desantis can already pick up Trump supporters. Haley will help draw in more moderate voters to the ticket. And she is verifiably smarter than Palin.

2024 is the Republicans’ presidential race to lose (I don’t put it past them). The January 6 hearings are helping eliminate the greatest threat to victory. And the two GOP members of the January 6 commission have either deliberately (Kinzinger) or effectively (Cheney) ended their Congressional careers over their quest to hold President Trump accountable.

Republican National Committee, please listen to them.