’24 election likely hinges on a few issues
Abortion rights, inflation among the hottest topics
The 2024 presidential race is quickly coming into focus, as the contest, chiefly the Republican primary, takes its final shape ahead of crucial early caucuses and elections.
A new poll shows former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley rising in New Hampshire, leaving Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing in the 2024 GOP primary field dominated by former President Donald Trump.
In the Granite State, Trump holds 46% of GOP primary voters in a Washington Post/Monmouth University poll released last week. But Haley is rising, and she holds a solid second at 18% as other top contenders have dropped out of the race. President Joe Biden faces a less competitive primary battle, but one that could be a headache and give frustrated Democrats a protest vote.
But while White House hopefuls keep track of polls on the Republican field, or a Trump v. Biden rematch, voters across the country are eager to hear candidates’ solutions to the problems and debates shaping the nation.
In the still early stages, here are some of the issues both parties will have to grapple with before millions flock to the ballot box next year.
Abortion
Democrats are bullish on reproductive rights and believe the issue favors them ahead of the 2024 presidential contest.
In the months since the Supreme Court knocked down Roe v. Wade, progressive organizations and activists seeking to protect abortion rights have scored seven straight victories in statewide ballots, most recently in Ohio.
Republicans, meanwhile, are scrambling to find better ways to convey their anti-abortion views in the post-Roe world.
“We can do this without hating each other,” Haley, who describes herself as “unapologetically pro-life,” said during a USA TODAY town hall in New Hampshire this year.
A July USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found one in four Americans say state efforts to impose strict limits on abortion access have made them more supportive of abortion rights.
Knowing this, Democrats and their allies are seeking to put referendums about abortion access on ballots next year, including in pivotal swing states such as Arizona and Nevada, but also in conservative-leaning places like Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota.
Age
Whether the Biden administration and Democratic Party officials like it or not, the president’s age will be on voter’s minds in 2024.
Survey after survey has shown doubts remain about Biden, 81, being able to do the job ahead of what could be a rematch against Trump, who is 77.
“So do doubts remain about the president’s age? Yeah, I mean how could any sane person say that this is not an issue?” James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist, said in a Nov 9 MSNBC interview.
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll released in November shows 54% of Americans think Biden no longer has “the competence to carry out the job of president.” The same survey found another 64% of voters said they’re somewhat to very concerned about his “health and mental acuity.”
In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released earlier this year, 37% of Democratic and Independent voters say the president’s age made them less likely to vote for him, while 3% said it makes them more likely. A 56% majority say it doesn’t make a difference.
That’s in party why ’Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., entered the primary, and though challenging an incumbent president for their party’s nomination is a political Hail Mary, it underscores how a significant segment of the Democratic base want a younger alternative.
Inflation
Voters consistently rate the U.S. economy as their top issue going into the 2024 election, including the rise in basic costs for food and fuel.
The Biden administration has been roaring about the overall economy for months in an effort to sell voters on a rebound, pointing to booming job creation and historically low unemployment.
Yet polling shows Americans remain concerned about stubborn inflation, which is down significantly from historic highs a year ago but remain above pre-pandemic levels.
About seven out of 10 Americans said the economy is getting worse, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll in September. Just 22% said the economy is improving.
America’s role in the world
With wars raging in Ukraine and Israel, international affairs have jumped to the forefront of the 2024 race for the White House. The debate presents different challenges for both parties as voters grapple with how the U.S. should respond to world crises.
Ukraine’s war with Russia has split the GOP a tad, with some lawmakers reluctant to support the eastern European country, a move critics say is a sign of growing isolationism in the party.
On the Democratic side, Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas has opened a significant fracture among liberal-leaning officials and the activist left, who point to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Seventy percent of Democrats age 1834 oppose disapprove of how the president has handled that conflict, according to a national NBC News survey. That split could jeopardize Biden’s reelection chances with some progressives.
A majority of Americans support sending additional military aid to both countries, which is what Biden called for in an October national address. What’s telling is the partisan divide that could play in voter’s decision next year.
The USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, for instance, found Biden’s supporters want the U.S. to have a more robust global role (65%-28%) whereas Trump’s backers held the contrary view (36%-56%).