‘Win or go home’ on tap for Colts-Texans
INDIANAPOLIS — This one isn’t like all the rest.
Shane Steichen is well aware. As much as NFL teams try to treat every game the same, there’s a different sense of anticipation when the stakes are win or go home, the reality the Colts and Texans are facing when they kick off in prime time at 8:15 p.m. Saturday in Lucas Oil (ESPN/WRTV) with a playoff berth on the line.
“It’s different,” Steichen said. “We know what’s at stake. Shoot, it’s with anything, right? When you’ve got something great to go get, it’s human nature, you’re going to give a little bit more. That’s human nature. Our guys have been giving their all, all year, but when the stakes are higher, obviously, it’s ramped up a little bit more.”
Neither Indianapolis (9-7) nor Houston (9-7) were supposed to be in this position, taking on each other with a playoff berth — and potentially the AFC South title, pending the results of Jacksonville’s season finale against Tennessee — on the line. When the two rivals ended the season against each other in the same stadium last year, the only thing on the line was draft positioning. This time it’s a de facto playoff game. “It is,” Steichen said. “It’s win or go home, so it is (a playoff week), for sure.”
1. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud heads into the final week of the season as the odds-on favorite to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, and with apologies to first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, Stroud is the biggest reason Houston has turned around the franchise this year. Stroud is third in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.1), tied for third in fewest interceptions thrown by a qualified quarterback (5), sixth in quarterback rating (99.0) and ninth in passing yards (3,844), and he faces a Colts defense that hasn’t seen a team’s opening-day starter since beating Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers two days after Thanksgiving.
2. The formula for the Colts pass defense is simple this season. When the pass rush is dominant — the Colts rank fifth in the NFL with 49 sacks, an Indianapolis-era record for the franchise — the defense can usually keep opposing passing games in check. When the pass rush struggles to get home, a young Indianapolis secondary has a tendency to leave open receivers. Stroud likes to take his time in the pocket, averaging 3.05 seconds from snap to throw this season, the fourth-slowest mark in the NFL. But the Colts are expecting Houston to build its game plan around helping an offensive line that’s given up 45 sacks, 24th in the NFL.
3. Indianapolis sacked Stroud six times in the first meeting between the two teams, but the Texans didn’t have star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who’s on track to play Saturday and represents one of the toughest tests of the season for Colts defensive end Samson Ebukam, who leads the team with 9.5 sacks.
4. Houston’s receiving corps was hit hard by a season-ending injury to star rookie Tank Dell. Another deep threat, Noah Brown, has already been ruled out due to injury, and veteran Robert Woods was listed as questionable on the injury report after missing all three days of practice this week. With the other three battling injuries, Houston’s best downfield weapon is Nico Collins, a third-year receiver in the middle of a breakout season. Collins has 71 catches for 1,102 yards and seven touchdowns this year, and the Colts would be wise to shift a safety in his direction to help out rookie cornerbacks JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones.
5. Indianapolis is expected to get back the services of nickel Kenny Moore II, a welcome sight given the youth in the rest of the secondary. After a streak of 19 consecutive games with a forced turnover, the Colts haven’t forced any the past two games, and they could use one of Moore’s signature game-changing plays against Stroud, a quarterback who rarely puts the ball in jeopardy.
6. With Dell out, Houston’s No. 2 target has been tight end Dalton Schultz (54 catches, 593 yards, five touchdowns); Schultz is facing a Colts secondary that has been 23rd in the NFL against tight ends and just shuffled its safeties to account for the loss of injured strong safety Julian Blackmon.
7. Backup tight end Brevin Jordan is a danger in his own right. Jordan has only 17, but he’s averaging 12.9 yards per reception and has two scores.
8. Houston’s running backs, Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce, haven’t made much of an impact in the passing game this season, but the Texans would be wise to put a few throws to the backs in the game plan on Saturday night. Indianapolis is giving up 44.5 receiving yards per game to running backs, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
9. Expect Colts defensive coordinator
Gus Bradley to keep playing his defensive backs deep in an effort to limit explosive plays. Stroud’s averaging 8.1 yards per attempt this season, and although Indianapolis has allowed 6.7 yards per dropback or fewer in seven of its last eight games, the Colts have struggled against top-tier receivers.
10. Houston’s running game ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.8), but the Texans have been much better in the second half of the season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry behind a breakout season from Singletary, who leads Houston with 835 yards this season.
11. Houston’s special teams have a distinct advantage against an Indianapolis kicking game that ranks 30th in the NFL in special teams DVOA, a statistic that calculates a team’s overall success rate compared to the rest of the NFL. The Texans have returned two kicks for touchdowns this season, kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has missed just one field goal and Houston’s held opposing punt returners to just 6.3 yards per return, the third-best mark in the NFL.
Texans pass rush not at full strength
12. The Texans pass rush ranks 10th in the NFL in both sacks (45) and sacksper-attempt (8.3%), but Houston’s front four rushers enter Sunday’s game at less than full strength. Defensive end Jonathan Greenard, who leads the Texans with 12.5 sacks, will not play, and the next three on the list — Will Anderson (7), Sheldon Rankins (6) and Maliek Collins (5) — all missed the first two practices of the week due to injury. By the same token, the Colts offensive line listed three stalwarts — left guard Quenton Nelson, center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith — as questionable due to injury. Kelly appears to be the Colts lineman in the most jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game, making the battle to protect Gardner Minshew a battle between two units trying to play through the pain.
13. Gardner Minshew has done a much better job protecting the football since turning the ball over eight times in two games after taking over for Anthony Richardson, and he’ll have to be careful again in a game where one or two turnovers could be critical against a Houston team that’s tied for the NFL lead in fewest giveaways (14) this season. Texans cornerbacks Derek Stingley (five interceptions) and Steven Nelson (four) have been the most opportunistic players in the Houston secondary this season.
14. If the Colts can give Minshew a clean pocket and keep turnovers to a minimum, Indianapolis should have chances to make plays in the passing game. Houston has allowed 7.1 yards per dropback this season, a number that ranks 28th in the NFL, despite its top-10 sacks this season, and they’ve given up 68.2% completions this season, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of only Arizona and Minnesota.
15. Indianapolis tight ends Kylen Granson (29 catches, 345 yards), Will Mallory (18 catches, 207 yards) and Mo Alie-Cox (11 catches, 143 yards) have been hit-or-miss this season, but they should have opportunities on Saturday night against a Texans secondary that has given up 6.5 catches and 61.4 yards per game to tight ends this season, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.