MEGA DOLLARS AND ATTACKS
Front-runner Braun pushes back against opponents as race goes into final month
There’s a certain comfort level on the debate stages now among Indiana’s six Republicans vying for the nomination for governor in the May primary election.
Gone is the awkward politeness of early-season forums where five or six of them amicably shared their platforms with little conflict and lots of crossover. Lately, familiar lines of attack have emerged ad nauseum, both on stage and over the airwaves. The heat came on somewhat suddenly, in the short month between the end of the legislative session and the start of early voting. Now, candidates are racing to break through the fog before the polls close in less than a month. Already Hoosiers can vote early in person or request an absentee mailin ballot.
In this primary, voters will choose the person most expect to be the next governor, given Republicans’ stronghold on Indiana. Whomever wins on May 7 will face presumptive Democratic nominee Jennifer McCormick and Libertarian nominee Donald Rainwater in the general election.
Hoosiers haven’t seen this level of competition in at least a generation. Previous governors have sailed through mostly uncompetitive primaries, handpicked by the party establishment. But times have changed. Now, four of the six candidates have raised and spent millions to woo primary voters.
U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, who has the coveted Donald Trump endorsement, appears from independent polling to be the front-runner, though even he has spent some money attacking his opponents in ads, a sign that his victory isn’t a done deal. Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch is also running to replace her boss, Gov. Eric Holcomb, who has yet to make an endorsement. Holcomb also has a former cabinet member in the race, former Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers. Fort Wayne entrepreneur Eric Doden, the earliest entrant in the race, has
been proliferous with his attack ads on Braun. Former Attorney General Curtis Hill, catering to an activist base, and Indianapolis mom Jamie Reitenour, catering to evangelicals, are struggling in polling and fundraising.
There’s one more opportunity for them to battle it out on stage together: On April 23, the Indiana Debate Commission will host the final debate of the primary season at Hine Hall Auditorium on the IUPUI campus.
All eyes on Braun
Unsurprisingly for a front-runner, Braun has born the brunt of attacks from his opponents. And, an indication some of these attacks have been at least somewhat effective, Braun has punched back a little.
Doden and Chambers have been on the forefront of the Braun attacks, mostly criticizing him for authoring a bill in 2020 to change qualified immunity law for police officers and for expressing sympathy for aspects of the Black Lives Matter movement during the height of 2020. These issues come up nearly every chance they get on the debate stage. Doden has put out three television ads hitting Braun on those topics; the Chambers campaign frequently tackles Braun in email blasts, especially in real time during the debates.
They’ve also capitalized on Braun missing a critical spending vote after having been in Indiana for a campaign fundraiser. It’s the subject of Doden video ad. (Chambers and Doden are by far the most prolific with television advertising: Doden has aired 15 unique TV ads, and Chambers, 13).
Braun, who has aired six TV ads in comparison, came out in March with his first attack spot on Doden — largely a repeat of claims made on a “Desperate Doden” website Braun paid for months ago. Doden fired back with a response ad alleging Braun is “flat out lying.”
Insiders speculate Doden’s attacks made even a small notch into the level of support for Braun, the front-runner, to spend money punching back. In a race with six people and a large chunk of voters undecided, every percentage point counts. But the Trump endorsement is certainly a powerful force behind Braun.
Chambers, meanwhile, hits Braun more subtly in his advertising, repeating over and over how tired he is of “career politicians” running the show. He’s marrying the concept of being an “outsider” — ironically, a Braunism — and emulating the legacy of Ronald Reagan and Mitch Daniels, whose name and likeness appears in at least one ad.
At least one outside group is keenly interested in the Trump vs. moderate Republican dynamic this sets up. A political action committee called ReCenter Indiana put up billboards in Evansville and Merillville, and soon Indianapolis, encouraging Democrats to ask for Republican ballots in this primary and to choose moderate candidates. The PAC hasn’t yet made a specific endorsement in the governor’s race.
Mega dollars flow into the race
In this primary, voters will choose the person most expect to be the next governor, given Republicans’ stronghold on Indiana. Whomever wins on May 7 will face presumptive Democratic nominee Jennifer McCormick and Libertarian nominee Donald Rainwater in the general election.
This is likely to be the most expensive Republican primary in Indiana history. This home stretch has seen a flurry of fundraising activity across multiple campaigns — including some huge loans from the candidates or their family.
Campaign finance reports aren’t due until April 19, but campaigns are required to report large contributions in real time. Since January:
● Doden saw the largest influx of large donations: a whopping $5.1 million, $4 million of which came from his parents, Daryle and Brenda Doden.
● Chambers raised just over $1 million from large donors, and also loaned himself $3 million — on top of the $5 million he lent his campaign last year.
● Braun pulled in a key $1 million donation from Uline founder Richard Uihlein, plus another $735,000 from other large donors.
● Crouch reported nearly $660,000 in large donations so far, but this doesn’t appear to include the $1 million she raised over the course of just two fundraising events she held in March, according to her campaign.
What the polls say
Polling in this gubernatorial primary has consistently put Braun on top, with some slight variations in how large his lead is.
The Braun campaign has released multiple internal polls, each showing Braun with a commanding double-digit lead. In each case, the pollster, Mark It Red, surveyed likely Republican voters over a three-day period, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Their January poll showed Braun with 40% of the vote and 30% undecided; Crouch was second with 13%, Doden last at 3%. In the campaign’s early March poll, Braun inched up to 31%, the undecideds inched down to 24% and appeared to shift toward Doden, who garnered 9%. Crouch still polled at 12%, with the other three candidates trailing behind Doden.
Also in March, the first independent poll of the race confirmed Braun’s lead. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of 526 likely Republican primary voters put Braun at 33.6%, with the largest chunk, 43%, undecided. The poll was conducted March 2-5 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%.
Here’s how the other candidates fared:
Suzanne Crouch: 7.2%
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Eric Doden: 6.6%
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Brad Chambers: 5.2%
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Curtis Hill: 2.4%
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Jamie Reitenour: 1.6%
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A more recent poll by IndyPolitics and Crossroads Public Affairs spelled positive news for Doden. He climbed up to second place with Crouch, at around 11%. That second-place cluster also includes Chambers, who polled at 10%, indicating there isn’t a clear alternative to Braun around which voters are coalescing. Braun retained a double-digit lead in this poll, at 33%.
Get to know the candidates
IndyStar compiled deeply researched profiles of each of the six Republican candidates. We learned:
Front-runner Mike Braun’s career
●
in business and politics is seen by some as an asset and others, a liability.
Suzanne Crouch is hoping her extensive
● experience and connections through the ranks of government will break through to voters.
Brad Chambers is working on overcoming
● his introvert tendencies.
Eric Doden thinks his three years of
●
preparation might be paying off in the home stretch.
Curtis Hill has found a new following
● among the COVID activist-grassroots, after his severe fall from grace due to groping allegations.
Jamie Reitenour, a political nobody,
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was motivated to run for office due to a Bible verse, and has since ran an unconventional campaign.
Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Kayla Dwyer at kdwyer@indystar.com or follow her on Twitter @kayla_dwyer17.