REMATCH OR REHASH?
Few Americans excited about 2024 Biden-Trump battle
>> President Biden and former president Donald Trump may have each drawn a record number of votes in 2020, but at this early stage in the 2024 election cycle, Americans show little enthusiasm for a rematch between the two well-known yet unpopular leaders, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Neither Biden nor Trump generate broad excitement within their own party, and most Americans overall say they would feel dissatisfied or angry if either wins the general election.
Biden, who has said he intends to seek re-election, has no current opposition for the Democratic nomination. Trump is likely to face at least several challengers in his bid to lead his party for a third consecutive election.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the Post-ABC poll finds 58 percent say they would prefer someone other than Biden as their nominee in 2024 — almost double the 31 percent who support Biden. That is statistically unchanged since last September.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 49 percent say they prefer someone other than Trump as their nominee in 2024, compared with 44 percent who favor the former president. That too is statistically unchanged from last September.
More than 6 in 10 Americans (62 percent) say they would be “dissatisfied” or “angry” if Biden were reelected in 2024, while 56 percent say the same about the prospect of Trump returning to the White House for a second time.
Slightly more than onethird (36 percent) say they would be “enthusiastic” or “satisfied but not enthusiastic” if Biden were reelected while 43 percent say the same about a possible Trump victory in 2024. But negative sentiment is also notable. More than onethird (36 percent) say they would be angry if Trump wins while 30 percent say that about a Biden victory. Fewer than 2 in 10 are enthusiastic about Trump (17 percent), and just 7 percent are enthusiastic about Biden.
In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, 48 percent of registered voters today say they would favor Trump to 45 percent who say Biden, a gap within the poll’s margin of error. About 9 in 10 Democrats back Biden and about the same share of Republicans back Trump. Among independents, 50 percent favor Trump to 41 percent for Biden.
One striking aspect of the findings is the degree to which neither the midterm elections, in which Republicans fell well short of their expectations and Biden had the best midterm for a new president in many decades, nor ongoing classified documents investigations have done little to change overall perceptions of the two men among the public.
Many Republican elected officials blame Trump for the failure of the party to capture control of the Senate or win more competitive governor’s races and a larger House majority, primarily because of his support for flawed candidates and their embrace of his ideas. Trump’s continued false claims about a stolen election in 2020 also put him into the forefront of the 2022 campaign debate and helped turn the election away from a pure referendum on Biden.
As a result, Trump will face competition for the Republican nomination, with a growing number of party officials and strategists saying it is time to move past him and his presidency and look to the future with fresh leadership. But the poll shows little significant damage to his image among the broader public, as mixed as it might be.
For Biden, Democratic successes in the midterm elections have not translated into more popular support for his presidency. The election outcome tamped down talk of possible challenges for the nomination but has not improved his overall image.
As Biden prepares to deliver his State of the Union address, his standing with the American people is very similar to where it was on the eve of the midterm elections. Overall, 42 percent approve of his handling of the presidency while 53 percent disapprove, including 42 percent who disapprove strongly.