NOAA’s climate unit forecasts El Nino weather conditions

Above-average rain to be followed by drought next year

There’s a 70 to 75 percent chance that El Nino weather conditions will develop in the next couple of months in the Hawaiian Islands, according to a prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

And, that could mean aboveaverage rainfall early in the wet season and below-average rainfall later, beginning in December and persisting through the spring of next year. The wet season typically runs from October through April.

The early wet and later dry conditions would help and hurt areas of Maui and the Big Island, especially ranching areas that were adversely impacted by droughts during this year’s dry season from May through September, forecasters said.

This year’s dry season increased the likelihood of brush fires, officials said.

Although statewide conditions during the dry season delivered above-average rainfall in most locations, drought developed in the early summer in Maui County and spread to the leeward areas of the Big Island and Oahu, officials said.

From August through September, tropical cyclones, such as Tropical Storms Lane and Olivia, and other weather systems produced record-breaking wet conditions in Hawaii, forecasters reported.

It marked the second wettest dry season in the last 30 years, officials said. The 2015 dry season was the wettest on record in three decades. The dry season in 2003 was the driest in that period of time.

If, as expected, El Nino develops, it will likely persist until the spring. Officials expect it will be a weak El Nino, which usually means there will be some heavy rains affecting the state.

Drought conditions are expected by the end of February, but the dry spell was forecast to be moderate. However, it’s anticipated that there will be small areas of severe drought, especially on lower leeward slopes. The impact would most likely be most felt by farmers and residents with rainfall catchment systems.

During El Nino weather patterns, sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal. The normal easterly trade winds weaken, and, sometimes, the wind direction will shift and blow west to east, weather service forecasters report.

El Nino conditions usually linger for about a year, but sometimes they stay longer. Conditions can begin in March and peak in December, around Christmas, leading to the weather pattern’s Spanish name, meaning Christ child.

According to a NOAA publication, “El Nino and its impacts on Hawaii,” the weather condition is associated with droughts, flash floods from severe storms, food and water shortages, and an increase in health problems, such as bacteria in water and food, dehydration and a lack of food when agriculture is adversely affected. Coral bleaching can happen during an El Nino.

Rainfall tends to be above average for most of the El Nino year, but dry conditions usually start by the end of the year and are worst during the first half of a year after an El Nino, the publication says.