Projecting ‘Business as usual’
Climate scientists unanimously agree that climate change is real, is already here, and is human induced. Over thousands of years, as the Earth changed from the last ice age to the current warm period when humans flourished, atmospheric CO2 increased by half. In the last 200 years, human fossil fuel consumption has added another 50 percent increase, with half of that in just the last 30 years. The change is so rapid that we have yet to experience the full heating effects of our current CO2 level, let alone what we are adding each year. Yet Republican leadership, and the fossil fuel corporations that fund them, deny this reality.
This is almost understandable. Adequately addressing the climate crisis, if possible, will require a rapid and complete shift of our entire energy economy, turning investments currently worth billions of dollars into expensive liabilities. People currently making huge profits will lose their privileged position, so short term thinking explains their denial. But what is not understandable is ignoring that “business as usual” risks destroying everything, including their profitable business. Don’t they have any children of their own?
Projecting into the future is always risky, but we already see where we are headed. By the end of this century, global sea level rise is currently estimated to be an additional 8 , assuming no new feedback loops accelerate the melting. In Mendocino County, highway 1 will become more vulnerable at Pudding Creek, Little River, Navarro River, Elk Creek, and the Garcia River crossing, just to name a few. Without massive infrastructure investments, disruption would begin with more frequent storm closures, then at most high tides, culminating is complete closure.
But that may be a life time from now. Based on what we have experienced in the last five years, a more immediate impact will be felt due to increased wildfires. Every year I read of some fire fighter, with decades of experience, saying they have never seen anything like what just happened. As these fires grow in frequency and intensity, the costs to fight them expands. In California, the 2021 increase was $1.2B, on top of the normal CalFire $3B budget. The cost of the damages to property was estimated at $150B.
The fire insurance industry is already very nervous about California, with many companies redlining parts of the state or considering leaving all together. Even if they will write a policy, the premiums are becoming unaffordable. As the insurance industry withdraws, the real estate and home loan banking industries are threatened. This will only get worse, at some point threatening the entire State economy.
Another near-term concern is the impact on the local wine industry. Smoke taint already degrades the value of the crop in some years, and will become more common. As the weather heats up, microclimates change, making some of the current grape varietals less suited to their region. Drought issues will probably increase.
Electrical power will become more intermittent as the planet heats. Hotter summers will increase air conditioning demands on an already congested grid, and increased Public Safety Power Shutoffs will leave more areas in the dark more often.
Food supplies will become more fragile. In addition to the threats from drought and fire affecting local food production, other food growing areas of the country are threatened by flood and rain. There have already been seasons where farmers in the Midwest have been unable to get into their fields for months.
Our civilization is a complex interaction between millions of relationships. As each of these processes get more difficult, or are eliminated, a tipping point can occur where whole systems stop working. We saw some of that as the pandemic disrupted the smooth functioning of the global supply chain. Just being out of synch can cause huge disruptions, let alone having critical sections fail completely.
The Republicans are doing everything they can to make sure they regain control of the federal government. If they do, their denial will run out the clock. One problem with continuing on as usual is that by the time something critical fails, perhaps generating enough interest to make fundamental changes, the opportunity to make those changes will have been lost. It is like waiting to fasten your seat belt until you notice you are about to go through your windshield: much too late.
As these fires grow in frequency and intensity, the costs to fight them expands. In California, the 2021 increase was $1.2B, on top of the normal CalFire $3B budget.