The Mendocino Beacon


Population trends of the nation and California by 2060

- By ANDRE MOUCHARD and KURT SNIBBE Southern California News Group

Aging boom: What's next?

The world is getting really old, really fast. And while many economical­ly developed countries (Japan, Italy, Germany) are ahead of us, the United States is not immune to the aging boom. Our new demography could mean big changes over the next few decades.

Here's a look at some demographi­c milestones between now and 2060

2022: About 333 million people call America home. Of those, some 56.4 million are age 65 or older. The older crowd includes 6.8 million people who are at least 85 years old, and 100,000 who are centenaria­ns: 100 or older. Median age is about 38.

Projection­s of older adult population: 2020 to 2060

By 2060, nearly one in four Americans is projected to be an older adult.

Millions of people 65 years and older 2028: About 14.9% of all people living in the United States come from another country. This ties two other peaks (1850 and 1910) for the biggest share of foreign-born residents in American history. On average, new arrivals are younger than the native-born population.

Projected population change from natural increase and net internatio­nal migration: 2017 to 2060

Starting in 2030, net internatio­nal migration is projected to become the largest driver of population growth in the U.S. 2030: Population is 355.1 million. All of the surviving baby boomer generation are now of retirement age, and the overall number of Americans age 65 and up is 73.1 million, or about 21% of the population. Also, for the first time, immigratio­n, not native-born births, is the biggest driver for our population growth. Many economical­ly developed countries with tighter immigratio­n rules are starting to see their population­s shrink.

2034: Older Americans (ages 65 and up) now outnumber children (18 and younger).

2035: The number of Americans who are 85 or older reaches 11.8 million, meaning the 85-plus crowd has nearly doubled over the past 15 years.

2040: Population hits 373.5 million, including 80.8 million who are 65 or older. About 12 million Americans have some form of dementia, nearly double the number from 2020. 2045: Fewer than half (49.7%) of all Americans are non-Hispanic White, a demographi­c fact that California and several other states reached decades earlier but which represents a first for the overall U.S. population. About 49 million Americans have diabetes.

2050: Population is 388.9 million and growing less than half of 1% per year. The ratio of active American workers to Social Security beneficiar­ies is about 2.6 to 1, down from roughly 3.7 to 1 in 1970.

2058: Population hits 400 million. Median age is about


2060: In a country that now includes 404.5 million people, oldsters far outnumber youngsters. In all, nearly one in four (94.7 million) Americans is 65 or older while about one in five (80.1 million) is 18 or younger. Of those older people, 19 million are 85 or older and 590,000 are at least 100. About 1.8% of all people living in America were born in another country.

Projected dependency ratios for the population: 2020 to 2060

In 2020, there were two dependents for every three working-age adults.

Dependency ratios are a measure of potential burden on the working-age population.

The youth dependency ratio is the population under 18 divided by the population aged 18-64.

The old age dependency ratio is the population aged 65 and older divided by the population 18 to 64.

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