Automakers must be ready for change, analyst says

Dave Power, whose J.D. Power and Associates helped define and improve vehicle quality, sees some dark clouds ahead for the automotive industry.

And he’s not sure everyone is carrying an umbrella and wearing galoshes.

He even worries about Toyota, his first client and the world’s most successful automaker. Industry analysts suggest Toyota will pass General Motors in 2006 to become the world’s No. 1 automaker.

‘‘Today, at Toyota, there’s nobody left from when I was there in 1968,’’ he said. ‘‘Some of the younger people act a little bit like how GM people were 50 years ago.’’

That potential for corporate hubris might be Toyota’s biggest challenge in the years ahead, he said.

Power, who spoke recently in San Mateo at a meeting of the Western Automotive Journalists, predicted ‘‘major, major changes’’ in the auto industry over the next five years.

Winners, he said, will be those companies with enough insight and flexibility to change and adapt. Losers will be those companies that hold onto the past.

He purposely avoided mentioning two troubled U.S. automakers, Ford and GM, by name.

His talk was full of stories and punctuated with quotes from management guru Peter Drucker and futurist Alvin Toffler.